An inverted yield curve might not mean a recession is coming

AP Images A number of commentators are stressing the necessity for the Fed funds rate to exceed the inflation rate for a recession signal. But the Fed funds rate didn’t exist until 1954.  And it didn’t exceed the 10-year Treasury yield before the 1957 or 1960 recessions. For the last decade I have made a […]

Stocks slide as 10-year Treasury yield surges to its highest level since 2011

Lucas Jackson/Reuters Stocks fell on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing in the red for the first time in eight sessions, as bond yields spiked to multi-year highs on the back of strong economic data and the US entered another round of trade talks with China. The dollar rose against its major peers.  […]

The yield curve looks like it could invert within the next year

AP When the yield curve — the difference between short- and long-term government bond yields — inverts, it has historically signaled a coming recession.  The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields hasn’t been this slim since before the last recession. The yield curve hasn’t inverted yet, but very well could this cycle if it […]

A flattening yield curve argues against higher interest rates

CENTRAL bankers may control short-term interest rates, but long-term ones are mostly free to wander. They do not always behave. When Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, was raising short rates in 2005, he described a simultaneous decline in long rates as a “conundrum”. His successor-to-be, Ben Bernanke, blamed foreign investments in American […]

Banks are sliding as the yield curve nears its flattest level since 2007 (BAC, GS, JPM, C, WFC)

Simon White/Flickr Bank stocks are sliding as heavy buying at the long end of the Treasury curve has the flattened the 2-10-year spread to 78.5 basis points, near its flattest level since the end of 2007. The benchmark 10-year yield is down 9.6 bps to 2.07% and at its lowest levels since the week following President Donald […]

Here’s why the riskiest “tail” of the high yield market is so important

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid In fixed income, and particularly non-investment grade credit, one area to consider as a differentiation point between managers (whether active or passive) is in the use and management of stressed and distressed credit. Rather than use credit ratings, which can be stale and backward-looking, we use a market-based definition that flags positions based […]

How Volvo’s using self-steering trucks to help sugarcane farmers improve crop yield

A day doesn’t go by without self-driving cars hitting the headlines, with Honda the latest company to reveal its plans — the Japanese carmaker wants autonomous vehicles on city roads by 2025. But long before they hit conurbations around the world, we’re already seeing an uptick in self-driving vehicles used for very specific, niche scenarios. Volvo is […]

What to expect from your bond portfolio as the yield curve flattens and the Fed unwinds its balance sheet

Business Insider Bill Irving is a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, where he co-manages about $ 40 billion of the government and mortgage bond portfolios spread across many Fidelity bond funds. Irving stopped by to talk to Business Insider CEO and global editor-in-chief Henry Blodget.  Feedburner