AP Images A number of commentators are stressing the necessity for the Fed funds rate to exceed the inflation rate for a recession signal. But the Fed funds rate didn’t exist until 1954. And it didn’t exceed the 10-year Treasury yield before the 1957 or 1960 recessions. For the last decade I have made a […]
Tag: yield
Stocks slide as 10-year Treasury yield surges to its highest level since 2011
Lucas Jackson/Reuters Stocks fell on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing in the red for the first time in eight sessions, as bond yields spiked to multi-year highs on the back of strong economic data and the US entered another round of trade talks with China. The dollar rose against its major peers. […]
The yield curve looks like it could invert within the next year
AP When the yield curve — the difference between short- and long-term government bond yields — inverts, it has historically signaled a coming recession. The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields hasn’t been this slim since before the last recession. The yield curve hasn’t inverted yet, but very well could this cycle if it […]
4 risk factors could reset the yield curve
AP/Carolyn Kaster The Treasury yield curve can hint at what investors expect future rates and inflation to be. If US growth keeps up and the Fed tightens monetary policy, it’s widely thought that yields on the front-end could rise more than those on the back this year. But other factors are at play — including […]
The yield curve is telling investors to be careful
Thomson Reuters The flattening yield curve may not be signaling an economic downturn, as it has in the past. Investors should still tread carefully, in case it does end up portending a downturn in the future. What does a flattening yield curve mean these days? Perhaps not what it used to. No doubt, the slope […]
A flattening yield curve argues against higher interest rates
CENTRAL bankers may control short-term interest rates, but long-term ones are mostly free to wander. They do not always behave. When Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, was raising short rates in 2005, he described a simultaneous decline in long rates as a “conundrum”. His successor-to-be, Ben Bernanke, blamed foreign investments in American […]
Banks are sliding as the yield curve nears its flattest level since 2007 (BAC, GS, JPM, C, WFC)
Simon White/Flickr Bank stocks are sliding as heavy buying at the long end of the Treasury curve has the flattened the 2-10-year spread to 78.5 basis points, near its flattest level since the end of 2007. The benchmark 10-year yield is down 9.6 bps to 2.07% and at its lowest levels since the week following President Donald […]
Here’s why the riskiest “tail” of the high yield market is so important
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid In fixed income, and particularly non-investment grade credit, one area to consider as a differentiation point between managers (whether active or passive) is in the use and management of stressed and distressed credit. Rather than use credit ratings, which can be stale and backward-looking, we use a market-based definition that flags positions based […]
How Volvo’s using self-steering trucks to help sugarcane farmers improve crop yield
A day doesn’t go by without self-driving cars hitting the headlines, with Honda the latest company to reveal its plans — the Japanese carmaker wants autonomous vehicles on city roads by 2025. But long before they hit conurbations around the world, we’re already seeing an uptick in self-driving vehicles used for very specific, niche scenarios. Volvo is […]
What to expect from your bond portfolio as the yield curve flattens and the Fed unwinds its balance sheet
Business Insider Bill Irving is a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, where he co-manages about $ 40 billion of the government and mortgage bond portfolios spread across many Fidelity bond funds. Irving stopped by to talk to Business Insider CEO and global editor-in-chief Henry Blodget. Feedburner