SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Silver Slipper Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Good 4. Rail: 6m out.
BEST BET: CAMILLO (Race 1, No. 2)
BEST VALUE: PERIZADA (Race 8, No. 13) & WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS (Race 9, No. 3)
R1 (12.45pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100m)
OVERVIEW: I’ve always had a good opinion of Camillo and I think he can make a statement here and put himself in the picture as a Country Championships smoky. He has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for this and his two wins last time in were arrogant in solid time. She Knows looks the clear danger and she gets the concussion plates off and that suggests her feet are in good order. Try A Lil Harder next best but I don’t like the fact she is coming back from 1100m here. Golden Legacy gets the services of Hugh Bowman and he was strong when winning at Tamworth last start, although he did have the right run.
SPEED MAP: Good tempo here with Camillo, She Knows and Try A Lil Harder probably the most prominent. They should roll along.
DID YOU KNOW: Camillo clocked the quickest last 200m splits in his two races last preparation despite leading in both of them.
BETTING STRATEGY: The $ 5.50 looks a good gamble to find out how good CAMILLO is. Could be above average!
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
SILVER SLIPPER: SUNLIGHT SET TO TURN UP THE HEAT
ROSEHILL: IT’S BOOM OR BUST TIME FOR RISING STARS
R2 (1.25pm): #SLIPPERSTYLE HCP (1500m)
OVERVIEW: I think the market has this pretty right with Show A Star and Cellarman looking the main two chances. They are up and rolling where a lot of these are returning from spells and will improve over further. I’m with Cellarman, I just think he has the better turn of foot and Show A Star did get a pretty soft lead last start which may not eventuate here with Nat King Cu in the race as well. Pelethronius is the sleeper and he won’t know what’s hit him with 53kg on his back. He should be ready to run a race third-up. They look the main three for me.
SPEED MAP: Nat King Cu will kick up from the low draw, while Show A Star will come across from out wide. Pelthronius and Cellarman shouldn’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Pelethronius is unbeaten in two second-up runs.
BETTING STRATEGY: 1, 3 and 6 should fight it out. You can take a boxed trifecta with those three or if you want to be brave, take a 3, 6 quinella and hope Show A Star runs third.
R3 (2pm): SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Fascinating edition of the Silver Slipper Stakes with the market focusing around Estijaab and Magic Millions winner Sunlight. I’m in the camp of Estijaab and she might be very good. Her overall time on debut was just .3s slower than what open class sprinter Memes on the same day and her last 400m and 200m splits were very slick. Sunlight is a winner but I take onboard Tony McEvoy’s comments that she is a bit vulnerable here off a short break. The figures out of her Magic Millions Classic win were just fair but she can burn the candle at both ends. I’m respecting Gongs, Neutrality and Zousain to a lesser degree but I have to be with Estijaab here.
SPEED MAP: Tactics will be crucial with Estijaab drawn the fence. She probably has the speed to lead but may take a sit if Neutrality goes on with it. Gongs should be handy too.
DID YOU KNOW: Estijaab’s last 200m on debut (11.28s) was the second quickest of the entire meeting after working a bit early! Only D’Argento went quicker over the final 200m in the meeting.
BETTING STRATEGY: ESTIJAAB on top and the clear horse to beat but I’m hoping she gets back out to $ 2.80-$ 3 as there is a bit of depth here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sunlight $ 2.80-$ 2.70-$ 2.80 ($ 1,500 @ $ 2.70), Estijaab $ 3-$ 2.60 ($ 260 @ $ 3, $ 200 @ $ 3, $ 2,500 @ $ 2.90, $ 1,800 @ $ 2.90, $ 250 @ $ 2.90, $ 250 @ $ 2.70 TWICE, $ 1,500 @ $ 2.60, $ 700 @ $ 2.60, $ 400 @ $ 2.60)
R4 (2.35pm): SPARK OF LIFE HCP (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Good race with a host of good horses resuming. I’m happy to be with I Am Excited and she looks well placed to sit back off a strong speed and have the last crack at them. You could make a case to say she beats Trekking home first-up last prep in the Rosebud when she never got a crack at them and her form around Alizee and Formality over a sprint trip last prep ties in well for this. Trekking, who meets I Am Excited 3.5kg better off here from their only clash, and Marsupial have both trialled well and should run well fresh, although Marsupial did peak on the run late first-up last prep. Acqume put in a blinder behind She Will Reign fresh but the figures out of that race weren’t as strong as I expected. She looks next best with general improvement.
SPEED MAP: Good speed expected with Shudabeen (missed the start last start), Teaspoon and Pendeloque likely to be up there with a few horses pressing up from low draws as well.
DID YOU KNOW: Marsupial and Trekking have both been gelded since last preparation.
BETTING STRATEGY: I AM EXCITED each-way at $ 6.50 and $ 2.30 with TAB.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I Am Excited $ 8-$ 8.50- $ 7-$ 7.50 ($ 300 @ $ 7), Trekking $ 5.50-$ 4.80
R5 (3.10pm): MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300m)
OVERVIEW: These mares races are always hard to assess and this is no different. Prompt Response is an underrated mare and she was carrying plenty of condition fresh but still won. She has drawn to get the gun run again. Foxplay’s trials have been just fair but her fresh record is super. She ran second to Winx first-up last preparation and would have beat Global Glamour in another stride first-up the prep before. Egyptian Symbol is consistent but had her chance to beat Prompt Response last start, while Egg Tart is a talented mare who ran second to Deploy first-up last prep but would probably prefer the sting out of the track. Insensata has race fitness on her side and can unleash a powerful sprint on her day. Heavens Above is a classy mare but generally takes a run to bring to hand.
SPEED MAP: Expect Girl Sunday to roll along with Prompt Response and Daysee Doom not far away. Tempo should be strong.
DID YOU KNOW: Foxplay has never really been a flash trialer and her second trial was over 800m, which was always going to be too short for her.
BETTING STRATEGY: PROMPT RESPONSE and FOXPLAY look the main two but not overly confident here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Prompt Response $ 3.80-$ 3.60, Daysee Doom $ 7-$ 6.50
R6 (3.45pm): PARRAMATTA ADVERTISER CUP (1900m)
OVERVIEW: Singing was a big firmer in betting when markets opened on Wednesday and it’s hard to go past him. He has really hit his straps this preparation and his latest win in the Gosford Gold Cup was outstanding when he was attacked a long way from home but still beat them all comfortably. I’m prepared to forgive Get On The Grange’s last-start flop at Doomben and he was flying prior to that. He ran second to Emperor’s Way the start prior and that horse would start well in the market here. Carzoff is going really well and I liked his trial since his last win, which was eye-catching. He was on the best part of the track last start though. Supply And Demand should relish the extra trip, while the quicker they go, the more Imperial Aviator comes into it.
SPEED MAP: Singing probably rolls to the front with Supply And Demand, Testashadow and Get On The Grange also up there.
DID YOU KNOW: Supply And Demand beat home Get On The Grange just .2 of a length at their only clash in the Grafton Cup last year albeit over 2350m.
BETTING STRATEGY: Main play SINGING to win + small each-way GET ON THE GRANGE at $ 17.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Singing $ 4.60-$ 3.10 ($ 450 @ $ 4.60, $ 300 @ $ 4.60, $ 235 @ $ 4.20, $ 320 @ $ 4, $ 280 @ $ 3.50, $ 1,000 @ $ 3.30, $ 250 @ $ 3.10)
R7 (4.25pm): HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Cracking edition of the Hobartville Stakes and one I’ll probably be watching rather than getting heavily involved in as there are several questions to be answered. Has Kementari gone to a new level this prep or are the horses behind him first-up not that good? Is Trapeze Artist still hit and miss or is he the real deal now? Is D’Argento a genuine Group 1 colt? Is Pierata up to the top colts? Should Luvaluva be the Australian Oaks favourite? For the record, I’m with Trapeze Artist at the price and his only start over this track and distance resulted in a 4¼ length win in the Golden Rose. He was dominant first-up and burnt the candle at both ends. D’Argento clocked some serious splits when winning first-up and his trial since was very sharp as well. He might be the one we’re all talking about as the horse to follow coming out of this race. Kementari was arrogant first-up but he is just too short for me to come into in a race with so many questions. He can win again and if you like him, don’t let me talk you out of it. I feel Pierata is a level below these top colts but he is a winner and he could make a fool of me yet. Ace High and Luvaluva both look to have improved considerably and will be working home nicely as well.
SPEED MAP: Siege Of Quebec will want the front, with Trapeze Artist also handy. Lord Cecil won’t be far away. Kementari probably drifts back from the awkward draw and the maps a worry.
DID YOU KNOW: Trapeze Artist is yet to win in two second-up runs but he was three wide without cover in one of them and didn’t have the blinkers on in either second-up run.
BETTING STRATEGY: Small play only on TRAPEZE ARTIST to win at $ 3.90. Just the three horses for me in the quaddie — Kementari, Trapeze Artist and D’Argento.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pierata $ 6.50-$ 7 ($ 200 @ $ 7 MULTIPLE TIMES), D’Argento $ 6.50-$ 7- $ 6.50 ($ 300 @ $ 7, $ 200 @ $ 6.50 TWICE)
R8 (5.05pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Extremely tough race with seven horses under double-figure odds. I can make a case for two horses at good odds, especially Perizada. Her overall time first-up were only slightly better than the maiden on the same day, which is concern, but she sat wide with a big weight and normally improves lengths second-up. She has proven she is up to a race like this in the past and with no weight on her back and a soft draw, she should be strong late at $ 10. Hieroglyphics probably wins with a gate first-up, Royal Tudor was luckless fresh and Kudero is a funny horse but he can reel off a sectional when he settles. They should roll along here and let him do that.
SPEED MAP: Strong tempo expected here with Just A Bullet, Princefamous, Fickle Folly, Selita, Memes and My Favorite all up there.
DID YOU KNOW: New Universe is dropping back sharply in trip and will wear blinkers for the first time.
BETTING STRATEGY: Main play PERIZADA each-way at $ 10.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: New Universe $ 11-$ 8, Perizada $ 11-$ 10, Selita $ 15-$ 11
R9 (5.45pm): TRIPLE M MARQUEE HCP (1350m)
OVERVIEW: I think the market has this a bit wrong and I can’t work out why Wild ‘N’ Famous is $ 10. He beat Bratislava fair and square two starts back and one is $ 3.50 and the other is $ 10? I know Wild ‘N’ Famous has been beaten since but he was off a six-week break and I think the 1350m is more his go now. He won over 1350m here last prep before losing the race on protest in the stewards’ room. I think he is great value. Careless was disappointing last start but he was wide and out the back. There isn’t a heap of speed here and with an aggressive ride he can improve sharply if he gets a run. Bratislava can win again but he is too short for mine. Satirical Magic won’t know what’s hit him with 56kg on his back and the extra trip will suit. Up ‘N’ Rolling has a good fresh record but is 1350m too short?
SPEED MAP: Careless has the speed to dictate with Bratislava and Wild ‘N’ Famous handy. Speed looks moderate.
DID YOU KNOW: Careless looks the only real speed in the race but he is first emergency at this stage.
BETTING STRATEGY: WILD ‘N’ FAMOUS a great each-way bet at $ 10. Small speck on CARELESS at $ 31 as well and include him in your quaddies.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Up ‘N’ Rolling $ 11-$ 7 ($ 250 @ $ 11, $ 250 @ $ 9, $ 200 @ $ 8.50, $ 300 x $ 100 e/w @ $ 7/$ 2.50)
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: The Hobartville Stakes could be one of the races of the carnival. If Glyn Schofield is right and Kementari has two more gears left in him after his first-up win, then I can’t see him losing despite the quality field.
RT: I can’t argue with that, this is some race. I’ve just gone Pierata’s way because of the odds.
MJ: There’s five who can win that race. Who do you think will win the day’s other feature race, the Silver Slipper? I’m going with Estijaab based on what she did in her lead-up trial where she looked to have a bit on Gongs, who she faces again on Saturday. But I’m very worried about how good Sunlight is.
RT: Another ripper race. I read it exactly the same as you. Estijaab from Sunlight — just. I’m sure the Golden Slipper favourite will come out of this race rather than the Blue Diamond. Is that a fair call, Matty?
MJ: Not if Plague Stone comes out and demolishes them at Caulfield. He looks to be a top colt and Godolphin are very confident in him. Back to Sydney, and I’m backing Foxplay to win first-up in the Millie Fox Stakes. Chris Waller is very happy with how she shapes up.
RT: Are you worried about Foxplay’s two trials? She didn’t beat a rival to the line in either.
MJ: I was until Chris Waller told me to forget about her trials. “She’s been sitting next to Winx for a long time and they don’t do trials,” Waller said. Her work on Tuesday morning was sharp. She’s ready to go.
RT: I’m worried about Foxplay. She is the class horse of the field and would win this if anywhere near right, but I’m staying with Prompt Response, who was good winning first-up at Warwick Farm.
MJ: The Parramatta Cup looks to be an open race so I’m going with a bit of an outsider in Get On The Grange. He gets a nice low weight, has been running in good races and will run the trip. Who have you got, mate?
RT: I backed this horse so often I feel like I’ve got a part share in it — Supply And Demand. I can’t jump off him now. His run was full of merit last start under a huge weight and he’s better suited under these conditions.
