KEEP the faith.
That’s the message to Faith’s Encore fans who have suffered through two luckless runs at Rosehill last month by the mare in the lead-up to Saturday’s ATC ClubsNSW Handicap (1400m).
Faith’s Encore ($ 5.50) hasn’t done herself any favours so far this campaign by missing the start on both occasions before rattling home to finish close-up but without any reward.
ANALYSIS: SATURDAY BEST WITH RAY & DUFF
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL
Another favourable draw combined with the step up to 1400m should hopefully pave the way for this well-bred daughter of Denman and Faith Hill.
Peter and Paul Snowden fans could be in for a day out at Rosehill Gardens with the father and son duo saddling up major contenders in five races.
Chief among them is the Triple Crown mare Denpurr ($ 9.50) who gets the firm footing she so desperately needs to show her best and with an outstanding trial win next to her name, she could finish right over the top of her rivals at each-way odds.
Denpurr, also by Denman, flies fresh having won three of her six first-up outings.
Not A Gypsy ($ 7) is sure to relish the progression to 2000m in the wake of his closing seventh of 13 beaten 4¾ lengths behind Hunter Jack over 1500m last month.
Team Snowden have Wild ‘N’ Famous ($ 5) and Roaring To Win ($ 10) doing battle in St John’s Park Bowling Club Handicap (1350m), while the ever reliable That’s A Good Idea ($ 13) is sure to be prominent for a long way in the 1400m Spring Preview.
TAB BIG BETS
Race 1: Another Sin has been smashed to pull off a rare feat of winning a TAB Highway at his very first start, $ 14-8, with bets of $ 1500 at $ 14, $ 1500 at $ 10, $ 300 at $ 8, $ 500 at $ 8.50, $ 400 at $ 8, $ 500 at $ 7.50 and $ 300 at $ 7.50 twice
Race 2: Vaucluse Bay is $ 3 into $ 2.20 to complete a hat-trick of Rosehill wins with bets including $ 1000 at $ 3, $ 600 at $ 2.80,$ 300 at $ 2.70, $ 2000 at $ 2.40, $ 475 at $ 2.40 and $ 300 at $ 2.25 twice
Race 3: Front runner Arbeitsam has firmed right in to $ 2 after opening at $ 2.70 with bets laid including $ 200 at $ 2.70 twice, $ 2000 at $ 2.50, $ 1342 at $ 2.40 and $ 1000 at $ 2.20
Race 4: The ever consistent Sir Plush is $ 2.90-$ 2.40. Bets placed include $ 400 at $ 2.90, $ 1000 at $ 2.80, $ 200 at $ 2.70 and $ 500 at $ 2.60
Race 5: Handsome Godolphin gelding Peacock is $ 4-$ 3.80, $ 400 at $ 200 at $ 4, $ 200 at $ 3.80
Race 6: Menari is $ 2.80 to $ 3 since the final field with bets of $ 600 at $ 2.80 and $ 400 at the same quote, Siege Of Quebec has been popular with TAB customers, $ 3.50 into $ 2.90 with bets placed of $ 800 at $ 3.50, $ 450 at $ 3.20, $ 1500 at $ 3 and $ 500 at $ 2.90, Trekking is $ 4.60 out to $ 5 while Diamond Tathagata is $ 10 after opening at $ 8
Race 7: Enigmatic ex Victorian Tom Melbourne is $ 4.60-$ 4.20 at his first run for Chris Waller and off a brilliant trial win with bets including $ 3000 at $ 4.60
Race 9: In-form galloper Special Missile has trimmed up to 44.60 after opening at $ 6 with bets placed — $ 400 at $ 6, $ 350 at $ 6 and $ 500 at $ 4.80
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barrier at Rosehill Gardens for the last three years
(in order of most wins)
Race 2: Field
Race 3: 1,2,3
Race 4: 2,3
Race 5: 3
Suggested Bet: $ 20
Bet percentage: 41.66
Race 6: 3,6
Race 7: 3,8
Race 8: 1,2,6,8,11
Race 9: 4,5,13
Suggested Bet: $ 20
Bet percentage: 33.33
Mapmaker (race nine) was second in the Tamworth Cup on April 30 for Craig Martin. The horse has since come down to his brother Tim and was hard to miss in Canterbury (1250m) behind subsequent winner Mana. Up to 1500m now on the big track suits. Makes appeal at $ 18 TAB Fixed.
Denmagic (race four) is a high-quality mare from the David Pfieffer stable. The multiple stakes-placed daughter of Denman has never looked better before a new campaign judging by those two trials wins at Rosehill and Warwick Farm, where she did it easily and without being fully tested. Denmagic performs well fresh but will need the tempo on upfront which is not guaranteed.
Hogmanay (race five) is resuming off the back of two encouraging trials, which will have him ready for his 1350m assignment at home, where he is unbeaten in three appearances. Hogmanay has placed two out of three first-up runs and has 2kg off for James Innes Jnr.
Vaucluse Bay (race two) is aiming for three straight wins at Rosehill. The Chris Waller-trained son of Al Maher has been kept ticking over nicely since the last win, he worked over 1200m on Tuesday timed in a leisurely 1:24.9, last 600m in 38.80, final 200m in 12.98s. Can win again.
Sir Plush (race four) is a very consistent son of Pins who has won five and placed seven times from his 17 runs thus far. The Bjorn Baker-trained Kiwi has finished runner-up here on July 15 behind Washington Heights and has had an easy trial since. Sir Plush worked on the A Grass at WF last Saturday over 1000m in 1:09.45s, last 400m in 26.37s and a last 200m in 13.2s.
I Am Excited (race six) left a huge impression when running on hard to place in the Woodlands at Scone before coming back home and winning impressively at Warwick Farm. Has trialled exceedingly well for this and will be rattling home once more.
Etymology (race seven) is an SAJC Derby runner who hasn’t raced since the 2016 Queensland Derby. The now gelded Godolphin five-year-old has pleased in his two trials over the 1050m. Great value at $ 16 on TAB Fixed Odds.
R4: ATC DOOLEYS HCP (1100m)
Bjorn Baker (trainer) Sir Plush: “His (recent) trial was brilliant and he is ‘Mr Consistent’ and he has had a bit of a breather between runs. He is rock-hard fit, so he won’t be stopping.’’
Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Small field but depth galore. Form around Sir Plush is very strong and likely to control here. Race fitness is his strong suit against the majority resuming. Closer to a $ 3 chance unless leaders advantaged. First uppers Denpurr, Denmagic and Zestful all big watches.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Sir Plush has been beaten as an even money favourite last two starts, however, he has run into a couple of smart ones, if you have been on him now does not look the time to abandon ship. Saver on Zestful, highly talented mare and the stable is flying.’’
Blake Johnston (bookie): “Sir Plush has been very honest this preparation and was beaten by a good horse last start. He has trialled well since and will prove hard to beat.’’
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Can’t see an abundance of speed here, which boosts my confidence for Badajoz from the Godolphin yard to lead and prove too strong after what was a tough fifth in Ramornie last start. Zestful, is the major threat, she’s undefeated first-up from three attempts and has trialled well.’’
R6: ATC ROSEBUD (1100m)
James Cummings (trainer) Trekking: “I loved the look of the horse in a returning barrier trial in July and he looks ready to tackle The Rosebud first-up and see what natural improvement he has taken into his three-year-old career.’’
Glenn Munise (TAB): “New season 3yo’s stepping out with most, if not all resuming with only Seige Of Quebec having had a start in the last month. Always been a huge fan of Menari, who wasn’t at his best later when striking wet tracks. Big weight but classy horse. Trekking trialled well and worked between races at Warwick Farm last week.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Happy to be against Siege Of Quebec who is coming back from the 1400m and could find a couple of these too sharp. Trekking looks the value in the race, won well on debut before being tipped out and his only failure was on a bog track in the slipper.’’
Blake Johnston (bookie): “I Am Excited has some residual fitness on his main rivals who also resume. He looked good winning a recent trial and represents some value.”
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Can’t wait to see Trekking step out as a three-year-old, Godolphin always had an enormous opinion of this colt and judging by his trial, he’s ready to go. Menari the obvious danger on top of the ground.’’
R7: ATC SPRING PREVIEW (1400m)
Chris Waller (trainer) Sarrasin, Tom Melbourne: “They are both nice horses … and I think they will be in for a good spring if their trials and trackwork are anything to go on.’’
Glenn Munise (TAB): “Value here in Kingsguard. Want him to dominate from front and lead with That’s A Good Idea and Oxford Poet trailing. Feather weight (53kgs) a plus as both of those have to give him 7+ kilos. Firm surface (Good 3) with rail out may be the place to be upfront. Sarrasin a huge watch.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Washington Heights could not have been more impressive on his return from Hong Kong, off a strong tempo we expect him to be finishing over the top. Tom Melbourne the bookies friend has trialled enormously, however, I would like to see him do it on race day before supporting him.’’
Blake Johnston (bookie): “Washington Heights won brilliantly first-up considering it was off a long lay-off. He can only improve off that effort and looks the one to beat.’’
Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “Excited to see Chris Waller’s French import Sarrasin step out again after an eye catching third in last year’s Villiers, has been tuned up with an easy trial and I’m happy to be on. Big watch on Tom Melbourne, who’s been specked at Tab.com.au to win first-up over 1400m.’’
Verdict: WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
Originally published as Inside mail: Big bets and market movers