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AS NAMES for market phenomena go, “inverted yield curve” lacks a certain punch. It is no “death cross” or “vomiting camel”. But what it lacks in panache, the inverted yield curve more than makes up for in predictive potency. Just before each of America’s most recent three recessions the yield curve for government bonds “inverted”, […]
Gunnar Rathbun / AP Images Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the entire US economy. US consumer confidence rose to the highest level since late 2000 in February. Sharp downturns in consumer confidence have acted as a lead indicator for economic downturns in the past. At around 70% of GDP, there is no more […]
ONE day, perhaps quite soon, it will happen. Some gale of bad news will blow in: an oil-price spike, a market panic or a generalised formless dread. Governments will spot the danger too late. A new recession will begin. Once, the response would have been clear: central banks should swing into action, cutting interest rates […]
REUTERS/Mike Segar There’s no better time than Labor Day to think about the critical role that work – both our own jobs and the labor of others – plays in all of our lives. But this role is surprisingly complex: While job loss and unemployment can cause individuals’ own health to suffer, studies have shown […]
“THROUGHOUT history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $ 725 and $ 1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $ 1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have […]
