SuperCoach NRL: Fullback analysis

Capable of punching out scores with ‘gun forward’ like reliability, and blessed with the highest of scoring ceilings, these are the players that can make or break your season.

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There’s the young gun, the ace at a new club, the legend battling injury and age, the former gun who looks underpriced and of course there’s the ‘future’.

With the tidying up of dual-position eligibility all five are available only at FLB in 2018 — and you can pick just two players at that position — so some tough calls will need to be made.

Without further ado, let’s crunch the numbers:

THE YOUNG GUN

TOM TRBOJEVIC ($ 677,300); 2017 AVG: 76.3

The most expensive player to start the game in 2018 for good reason, Trbojevic pumped out 1,679 points in 2017 at an average of 76.3 and was the only back to hit the elite 1.0 PPM barrier (excluding the limited samples of Greg Inglis and Nathaniel Roche). In 2017 Turbo made the equal second most linebreaks, second most try-assists (the only non-half in top five of this stat), fourth most runs of any player and was third in metres gained for the season.

Consistency grade: A

Reached or exceeded 50 PPG in 73% (16 of 22) of games played in 2017. Two sub-40 scores.

Going large grade: A+

Averaged 90.6 in those games he reached or exceeded 50 PPG. Passed 75 points 11 times, hitting triple figures five times and boasting a season high 134.

Prediction:

There’s no reason not to expect more of the same in 2018 from a player who is yet to reach the peak of his potential. The premium price is daunting but there are plenty of reasons to take the hit upfront and save yourself the inevitable trade you will be forced to spend bringing him in later if you look elsewhere to start.

LISTEN!!! The podcast team dissect important pre-season news and reveal their early picks for 2018.

THE LEGEND BATTLING INJURY AND AGE

BILLY SLATER ($ 606,000); 2017 AVG: 68.3

Slater played just seven games in 2015 and one in 2016 due to severe shoulder injuries. He was eased back into the 2017 season and missed time in the middle of the season with another niggle. His team is blessed with two wingers (Josh Addo-Carr and Suliasi Vunivalu) who love to bring the ball back up off a kick, and as a result Slater has a significantly lower workrate than his competitors here. In 2017 RTS averaged 11.3 hit-ups over 8 metres per game; Turbo averaged 10.4, Teddy 9.3 and Slater just 5.5. However, what he lacked in volume in 2017 he made up for in effectiveness recording the most offloads and second most try assists.

Consistency grade: C

Reached or exceeded 50 PPG in 53% (9 of 17) of games played in 2017. Five sub-40 scores. NB one injury affected game excluded from calculations.

Going large grade: A+

Averaged a stellar 98 PPG in those games where he reached or exceeded 50 PPG. Passed 75 points seven times hitting triple figures four times with a season high of 134.

Prediction:

The lack of base stats is why Slater fell behind the field on consistency, and history suggests 2018 will see more of the same with some high highs but more lows than others around his price range. Reportedly ‘ripped and ready’ for 2017, it would not surprise to see Slater finish in the top 5 at his position. However, he is the second most expensive player at FLB to start 2018 and anyone who takes that price is paying overs.

THE ACE AT A NEW CLUB

JAMES TEDESCO ($ 599,700); 2017 AVG: 67.6

Tedesco spearheaded a woeful Tigers attack in 2017, and despite his team posting the second fewest points for in the league last year he still managed to average 67.6 PPG. His team’s lack of point hurt Teddy’s total try and try assist stats in 2017. That he still scored so well is testament to his ability to create attacking stats for himself. Despite making 50 less hit-ups than Trbojevic and 60 less than Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Tedesco busted almost 70 more tackles than each of his positional rivals in 2017 — and doubled the output of each in offloads.

Consistency grade: A

Reached or exceeded 50 PPG in 75% (15 of 20) of games played in 2017. Two sub-40 scores. NB one injury affected game excluded from calculations.

Going large grade: A

Averaged 79.4 in those games he reached or exceeded 50 PPG. Passed 75 points six times (with a 74 and 73 as well) hitting triple figures twice with a season high of 137

Prediction:

2018 sees Tedesco join the Roosters gifting the fullback a significant upgrade in forwards ahead of him, halves alongside him and outside backs running off him. All that should mean more tries and try-assists on offer. As discussed above, Tedesco can create plenty of opportunity for himself, so the upgrade in quality surrounding him can only mean more points for owners. I am expecting big things this year.

THE UNDERPRICED FORMER GUN

ROGER TUIVASA-SHECK ($ 533,700); 2017 AVG: 60.1

Getting off to a flyer in 2017 was always going to be a struggle for RTS after a complete tear of his ACL ended his 2016 campaign ended just 17 minutes into round seven. The Warriors captain averaged 49.8 PPG over his first 11 games of 2017, but a far healthier 69.5 over the final 12. With a prodigious workrate he offers you a solid base which is reflected in his A+ consistency grade below.

Consistency grade: A+

Reached or exceeded 50 PPG in 77% (17 of 22) of games played in 2017. Two sub-40 scores. NB one injury affected game excluded from calculations.

Going large grade: B-

Averaged 70.1 in those games he reached or exceeded 50 PPG. Passed 75 points five times (with one 74 as well) hitting triple figures once with a season high of 115.

Prediction:

Recovered from his knee injury and with a full pre-season under his belt, I expect RTS to lift his average at least 5 points on 2017 and on that basis he’s underpriced.

THE FUTURE

KALYN PONGA ($ 419,900): 2017 AVG: 52.6

The hardest player in this list to rate, Ponga only played seven games in 2017 and has moved to a new club for 2018. However, his workrate and ability was clear to all in that small sample size. Last season Ponga busted more tackles per game than Tom Trbojevic, made more linebreaks per game than James Tedesco and more hit-ups over eight metres per game than Billy Slater.

Consistency grade: C+

Reached or exceeded 50 PPG in 50% (3 of 6) of games played in 2017. Zero sub-40 scores. NB One injury affected game excluded from calculations

Going large grade: B

Averaged 77.7 in those games where he reached or exceeded 50 PPG. Passed 75 points twice (33% of counting games) and had a season high of 90 points.

Prediction:

I think you need to temper your expectations for 2018 based on 2017’s production a little. Firstly, his two big games came against two very average teams (Titans and Knights), secondly he’s now at the Knights a significant downgrade on the Cowboys despite the optimism about 2018 radiating from the Hunter.

FINAL GRADING

TIER 1

You should have one of these players in your team, they offer consistent base and both can go large against any opponent. I think there is a strong case for taking both. Tom Trbojevic had a dominant season last year and is only getting better while James Tedesco boasts undoubted quality and is set to reach a new level now playing with a team loaded with representative talent.

TIER 2

If your budget does not stretch to both Tier 1 players there’s still every reason to take one above and load up your position with one of the players here. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck offers base reliability and potential. Ponga is all bout potential — with a significant price reduction on either of the three already rated.

TIER 3

It feels wrong to rate arguably the greatest player to ever play the position as a Tier 3 option, however, injuries are a growing concern and the lack of base leads to a lack of consistency which is hard to take at the price range.

Lastly an honourable mention to the following FLB options who all are worthy of selection consideration but are available at other positions and due to the host of FLB only candidates should not be picked here:

— Clint Gutherson

— Cameron Munster

— Cody Walker

— Matt Moylan

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