MARK Newnham has pointed to past patterns with New Zealand horses to suggest Lanciato can break through for his first Australian win at Rosehill on Wednesday.
Lanciato started his career in New Zealand before being transferred to Newnham’s stables midway through last year.
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The four-year-old was placed three times in Sydney last preparation but Newnham, who was formerly Gai Waterhouse’s assistant trainer before going out on his own, feels he has come back a better horse this campaign.
“He had a fair time of it before coming to me so he did a good job (last prep),” Newnham said. “He wasn’t able to quite win but I’ve been happy with the way he has come back, a little bit stronger, a little bit more used to his surroundings here.
“I always found at Gai’s all the New Zealand horses we had there were all better at their second and third preparations. I think just natural improvement sees him a little bit better horse this time around.”
Trainer Mark Newnham is expecting Lanciato to shine at Rosehill Gardens. Picture: Jenny EvansSource:News Corp Australia
Lanciato put the writing on the wall with an eye-catching third first-up at Randwick on Australia Day where he ran on strongly over 1200m despite being trapped wide without cover with 61kg.
“He drew wide and carried the top weight so it was a good effort,” Newnham said. “I really want to get him down in weight a bit so this was perfect to get him into a Benchmark 79 (with 55kg). He has performed well at Rosehill before and he has had plenty of time to get over that first-up run and he probably gets to a trip (1400m) he enjoys. The dry track he enjoys and he is down in weight, so he has a few things going for him.”
Meanwhile, Paul Snowden has told punters just to forget Royal Navy’s last-start eighth over the mile and expects him to bounce back over 1800m at Rosehill.
“He went way too hard the other day and was ridden too much for speed,” Snowden said. “This will be a guide to see, one, that run hasn’t flattened him and put him out and, two, if he can stay and stick on at 1800m we know where we are going with him. It is a little bit of a D-day for him and we will ride him how he has been ridden his last two wins (off the speed). I think he will probably get further like 2000m.”
Snowden also expects an improved showing from Rock Mylady in race six.
“We’ve changed a lot of his training around so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back,” Snowden said. “All his work has been changed and there is a lot of variable stuff in it like the beach and not galloping him as hard and we’re trying to freshening him up. But Rock Mylady is Rock Mylady and there are two different horses that can turn up on the day.”
Team Snowden also have the promising California Nike engaged in race seven but the horse may yet be scratched and could potentially be sent to Hong Kong to race.
Chandana (race eight) looks the best bet on the Rosehill card but there will be plenty of interest in the two-year-old races (races one and two) as well.
BRAD DAVIDSON’S BEST BETS
BEST BET: CHANDANA (Race 8, No. 2)
Chandana went super fresh and meets Foxy Housewife 2½ kg better at the weights here. Can position up midfield and his trial since has been pleasing.
NEXT BEST: LANCIATO (Race 6, No. 8)
Lanciato had no luck first-up with the 61kg when trapped wide throughout and he meets Pick Me Up 3½kg better off at the weights. Drawn OK and he has won his only start second-up run.
LOOKS WELL SUITED: MOST EXALTED (Race 3, No. 1)
Had excuses last start when up sharply to 2400m on a testing track and he pulled up with the thumps and a poor post-race recovery. His trial form since has been good and he gets his chance on a good track.
TRIAL POINTER: SHE’S ON QUE (Race 2, No. 9)
She’s On Que was well in the market for the Inglis Classic before being scratched. She defeated subsequent winner Dracarys in a trial last month and has drawn well.
BEST EXOTIC: Boxed trifecta — Race 4, Nos. 1, 2, 3, 5.
OTHER EXOTIC: Boxed quinella — Race 5, Nos. 3, 6, 10.
BRAD DAVIDSON’S ROSEHILL PREVIEW & TIPS
RACE 1
Tough race. FRENCH TUNE (5) has won three trials in convincing fashion and he is well educated and will at least be on speed. SOLAR PATCH (10) has drawn off the track but his recent trials have been eye-catching. KENNEDY (7) ran well on debut in a race at Warwick Farm where the rain pelted down during the race. He will be better for the experience. SNITCH (9) and CALCULATED (2) have also trialled well.
BETTING STRATEGY: Small speck bet on SOLAR PATCH at double-figure odds.
RACE 2
SHE’S ON QUE (9) was well in the market for the Inglis Classic before being scratched. She defeated subsequent winner Dracarys in a trial last month and has drawn well. IBANEZ (1) received good early support in a race at Hawkesbury on Tuesday before being scratched and saved for this race. BROOK MAGIC (2) finished second to Dracarys on debut and she will be better for the experience. ZA ZI BA (12), TORVILL (11) and MAJARA (8) have also trialled well.
BETTING STRATEGY: SHE’S ON QUE to win.
RACE 3
MOST EXALTED (1) had excuses last start when up sharply to 2400m on a testing track and he pulled up with the thumps and a poor post-race recovery. His trial since has been good and the good track suits. NO RETURN (2) doesn’t win out of turn but is super consistent, while STORM SYSTEM (4) and DESTINATION TUCSON (7) look next best.
BETTING STRATEGY: MOST EXALTED to win.
Most Exalted looks well placed at Rosehill on Wednesday. Picture: Mark EvansSource:News Corp Australia
RACE 4
WINE BUSH (1) was a stakeswinner over 1800m last prep and he was good first-up on the heavy track. ROYAL NAVY (2) had a torrid time of it on speed last start over the mile but there is little speed here and it could play into his hands. SALSONIC (3) will give them a start but she was good late in a really strongly run mile last time out and she should have no trouble running out 1800m. DAWN WALL (5) was really impressive when winning a recent maiden. This is tougher but she is on the up.
BETTING STRATEGY: Boxed trifecta — 1, 2, 3, 5.
RACE 5
AQUATIC (3) won a Randwick maiden last start and as expected the form out of that race has been really strong. PRINCESS POSH (6) has won two-straight this prep and Brenton Avdulla rides for the in-form Kris Lees stable. FRAGONARD (10) did enough last preparation and his two recent trials have been good. First-up 1300m is the knock but he will push forward and run well. POTENT FORCE (14) will be running on.
BETTING STRATEGY: Boxed quinella — 3, 6, 10.
RACE 6
LANCIATO (8) was super first-up with the 61kg when trapped wide throughout and he meets Pick Me Up 3.5kg better off here. Drawn OK and he has won his only second-up run. PICK ME UP (4) seems to be looking for the 1350m now and he was good at Randwick last start when potentially not on the best part of the track late in the day. ENCOSTANATI (1) and HE’S A GIVEN (7) will both be on speed and can give a good kick.
BETTING STRATEGY: LANCIATO win.
RACE 7
Looks a race in three between CALIFORNIA NIKE (1), REACH FOR HEAVEN (11) and POTENT FORCE (4). California Nike was super first-up when he ran home in 33.48s off a slow speed to get there just on the line. Reach For Heaven was also good first-up but then second-up seemed to have every chance at Canterbury last start. Third-up at 1400m looks ideal though for Brenton Avdulla and Kris Lees. Potent Force has been trialling well and looks next best.
BETTING STRATEGY: Work around 1 and 11.
RACE 8
CHANDANA (2) went super fresh and meets Foxy Housewife 2.5kg better at the weights here. He can position midfield and his trial since has been pleasing. FOXY HOUSEWIFE (6) beat all bar subsequent Group winner Invincible Gem last start and she just needs a slick of luck from the barrier here. MODHA (5) hasn’t had a lot go her way recently but this is well within her grasp. O’REILLY CYRUS (8) looks next best.
BETTING STRATEGY: CHANDANA to win.
Originally published as Preview: Best bets for Rosehill
