WHEN Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor go head-to-head in Las Vegas this month who, according to the bookmakers, will win, when and how?
The short answer is: Mayweather. And almost certainly inside the distance. The men and women setting the prices for the mega fight have universally decided that a champion pugilist with a 49-0 record will out-box a man taking part in his first ever bout under Queensbury rules. Fancy that.
COMPLETE GUIDE: Everything you need to know about Mayweather v McGregor
Mayweather is as short as $ 1.25 for the victory, only stretching to $ 1.67 for a KO or technical KO. If you predict that it will go to the 12 rounds — and you would be in a minority — then $ 3.75 on Mayweather is about as good as you’re going to get.
COMPLETE ODDS: All the latest Mayweather-McGregor betting at TAB.com.au
McGregor’s best chance of the upset is to end the fight early, according to the odds setters, who have him at $ 4.50 for the KO/TKO and $ 4.25 for any sort of win. A 12 round victory for the UFC fighter is around a massive $ 21.00. And well worth avoiding even at that price.
Whichever way you look at it, there is precious little value in the main head-to-head markets (unless you have the luxury of being able to stack a huge wedge on Mayweather you can afford to lose should the unlikely happen), though anyone fancying a punt is not short of more interesting options on which to risk their hard earned cash.
The value’s with McGregor; the smart money is all on Floyd Mayweather.Source:AP
The most reliable of bets surely has to be the temptingly priced $ 3.50 for The Notorious to be docked a point at any time for any rule infringement. The Irishman is a complete newbie to the sport, will be pumped up for the contest and risks seeing muscle memory kick in, slipping in to his MMA go to moves out of habit that would draw the referee’s ire.
And, speaking of kicking, and on the same rationale, you can get as high as $ 9.00 for McGregor to kick his opponent at any time. Though be warned, you only get the pay out on that one if it actually lands, something that is no guarantee with Mayweather’s skilful ability to avoid contact in the ring.
The same caveat is in place if you think McGregor will have a swing at the ref with his hands — his landing a punch on the official available at $ 7.00 (meaning the bookies make him three times more likely to hit the referee than he is to go the 12 rounds and win).
That stretches to $ 101.00 for the referee to be floored by a blow from either fighter — probably worth more consideration: Mayweather may fancy his chances of standing up to any blows from McGregor, the referee on the other hand ….?
With the fight predicted to be one sided, and probably short, there is a temptation to be interested in the 51.00 on offer for McGregor failing to land a clean punch during the fight. The same price is available on Mayweather winning inside the first 30 seconds and putting everyone out of their misery.
Finally, for the nostalgia fans among you who yearn for more even contests between established boxers than this carnival sideshow is likely to serve up — like, say, I don’t know, Mike Tyson v Evander Holyfield — a whopping 101.00 is available on McGregor taking a bite out of his opponent’s ear during the bout; 251.00 for the roles to be reversed.
As ever, the message is to gamble responsibly and remember that a poor bookie has yet to be sighted in the wild.
Unless you are measuring their worth by the standards of the two men who may or may not cannibalise one another at the T-Mobile Arena on August 27 (AEST).
Originally published as McGregor to punch the ref? You bet!
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