Andy Clark/Reuters
The demographic makeup of the US will change dramatically over the course of the next 10 years, and a new report from a group of Credit Suisse analysts led by Seth Sigman shows that those changes could have a big impact on consumer spending and the well-being of certain industries.
According to the report, the following demographic changes will have the biggest impact on consumer spending:
- “Lower growth in under 25-years-old cohort.” Declining birth rates will translate into a decline in the growth of people under 25-years-old. The population of this group is set to increase by just 1.3% in the decade between 2016-2026.
- “Growing young adult population.” Millennials, the largest population group, are about to enter the “sweet spot for spending.”
- “Shrinking middle-age population.” The so-called “middle-age cohort,” people age 45-64, is set to decline by 2.8%
- “Growing older population.” The older population, people 65-years and above, is expected to grow by 37.1%.
“Our analysis is most positive for Home Improvement, Leisure-related categories (e.g., RV’s, boats), and Staple categories (Healthcare, Household Supplies, Food at Home) based on expected growth in the young adult and 65+ age cohorts, while less positive for Apparel/Footwear, General Sporting Goods, Home Furnishings, Casual Dining, based on a shrinking middle-age group,” the analysts wrote.
Following are 14 stocks Credit Suisse thinks could be negatively impacted by demographic changes in the US.
Hudson’s Bay Company
MI
Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less
Source: Credit Suisse
JCPenney
MI
Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less
Source: Credit Suisse
Nordstrom
MI
Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less
Source: Credit Suisse
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
