UPDATE: SOCCEROOS coach Ange Postecoglou says Saudi Arabia’s shock loss to the UAE has done nothing to alter his side’s preparation for tonight’s night’s crunch World Cup qualifier against Japan.
Australia’s chances of qualifying directly for Russia 2018 were given a dramatic and unexpected boost when Saudi Arabia lost 2-1 in Al Ain.
And where a Saudi win on Wednesday morning coupled with an Aussie loss on Thursday would have condemned the Socceroos to the dreaded playoffs, now the stakes aren’t so cutthroat.
But that’s not the view Postecoglou is taking.
SCROLL DOWN FOR WIN, LOSE, DRAW PERMUTATIONS
SELECTION DILEMMA: Who will Socceroos start in Saitama?
The result clears a path to the World Cup for Ange Postecoglou (L) and the Socceroos.Source:Getty Images
The coach woke at 1.30am Japan time to watch the Gulf rivals go head-to-head.
And while many expected the Saudis to win — despite being away from home — considering what was at stake for them combined with the fact that the UAE needs several miracles to go its way to qualify, Postecoglou said the result wasn’t “entirely surprising” to him.
“I guess the only question mark was how motivated UAE were going to be,” Postecoglou said.
“They played quite well and obviously the Saudis probably struggled a bit with the pressure of the situation. That’s two losses on the bounce for them.
“But it doesn’t really change anything for us. From our perspective everything’s still the same. Our goal is to win here on tomorrow (Thursday) night and win on Tuesday (against Thailand at AAMI Park).
“Our fate’s been in our hands the whole way and it continues to be.”
CHAT LIVE WITH MATT WINDLEY IN JAPAN!
A win for Saudi Arabia would have taken it two points clear of Japan and three points clear of Australia ahead of that pair’s meeting.
The Green Falcons next host Japan in Jeddah on Wednesday morning (AEST), hours after Australia plays Group B stragglers Thailand.
Given that the dates of the Muslim pilgrimage of Hajj meant the Saudi Arabia-UAE game was unusually played two days earlier than the other Group B encounters, both Japan and Australia now have the advantage of knowing exactly what is on the line at Saitama Stadium.
But Postecoglou said there are bigger factors at play than just qualifying for Russia.
“The overriding thing is it’s not about qualifying for a World Cup, because we’ve done that before — not that we take it for granted,” he said.
“It will obviously be a big occasion should we do it. But if that’s our only end goal then we’re kind of not doing our role whilst we’re in this position.
“My job and the players who are currently representing the country (is) to progress the country.
“Progression for me means qualifying but (also) playing a brand of football that will be successful at a World Cup.
“While people are making a big deal about last night’s result, I can guarantee the boys won’t bat an eyelid because the motivation for tomorrow is the same as it would be regardless of what happened.”
PERMUTATIONS
SOCCEROOS BEAT JAPAN
Given their major qualification rivals will take points off each other next week, the Socceroos now know a first win on Japanese soil will be enough to secure a spot at a fourth consecutive World Cup as they would sit two points clear of Japan and three points clear of Saudi Arabia heading into the final matchday.
That would catapult the Samurai Blue into a nailbiting, winner-takes-all clash in Jeddah next week, although a draw for Japan in that match would be enough to see it scrape through.
SOCCEROOS AND JAPAN DRAW
But even a draw against Japan would go a long way to securing qualification for Australia.
In that scenario, only a shock result against Thailand in which the Socceroos fail to pick up all three points would put them in any danger of having to qualify through the playoffs.
A Socceroos loss to Thailand on Tuesday would mean the Saudis could draw with Japan and again leapfrog Australia into second.
A draw against Thailand would require Saudi Arabia to win its last game.
A stalemate in Saitama would still leave Japan in a sticky situation heading into next week, as a loss to Saudi Arabia coupled with an Australia win over Thailand would send the Samurai Blue to the playoffs.
SOCCEROOS LOSE TO JAPAN
But don’t think we’re on easy street just yet, as a loss in Saitama would still leave Australia’s qualification hopes on a knife’s edge.
A win for Japan would see it seal its qualification with a game to play given it would sit four points clear of both Saudi Arabia and Australia.
It would also leave Saudi Arabia and Australia deadlocked on 16 points going into the final round.
Assuming both teams then win their final games — which the Gulf side would be favoured to do considering the game would mean little to Japan — the two would be engaged in a shootout to see who can come out with the better goal difference, as they would both be tied on 19 points come the end of the section.
While Australia appears to have the easier game on paper, the Saudis have two distinct advantages in this scenario.
1) They will go into the final matchday at least one goal ahead on goal difference, depending on how many goals Australia had lost to Japan by — they are both on +6 going into the Japan-Australia game.
2) Given their game kicks off later, they will know exactly how many goals they need to win by having already seen the Australia-Thailand result.
In any case, an Australian loss to Japan will mean that there is no way the Socceroos can have that magic “we’re going to Russia” moment at AAMI Park, as their qualification hopes will still depend on what transpires in Jeddah.
* Top two qualify automatically for 2018 World Cup. Third place team goes to playoffs
ASIA GROUP B QUALIFIERS
OVERNIGHT
UAE 2 def Saudi Arabia 1, Al Ain
THURSDAY NIGHT
Japan v Australia, Saitama
Thailand v Iraq, Bangkok
NEXT TUESDAY
Australia v Thailand, AAMI Park
Iraq v UAE, Amman
Saudi Arabia v Japan, Jeddah
Originally published as Can Socceroos secure World Cup berth?
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