REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
- Blackstone Vice Chairman and investing ace Byron Wien is out with his list of 10 “surprises” for 2018.
- These predictions, he says, have a better-than-50% chance of happening, but the average investor assigns them only about a one-in-three chance.
- The list, now in its 33rd year, includes a 10% stock market correction, populism worsening, and Republicans losing big in the midterm elections.
Blackstone vice chairman and investing stalwart Byron Wien is out with his list of surprises for 2018.
Wien defines his surprises as things that have a better-than-50% chance of happening, but which the average investor anticipates a less than 30% likelihood of occurring.
2017 was not the strongest year in terms of how his forecasts played out. When Business Insider spoke to Wien in September, he acknowledged that he had been “dead wrong” on the dollar, wrong on inflation, and on the German election (Angela Merkel won a fourth term a few days later).
President Donald Trump definitely did not soften his tone, the euro didn’t reach parity against the dollar (it’s at a three-year high), and crude oil sneaked above $ 60 per barrel in the final week of 2017.
But the economy did achieve 3% growth, the S&P 500 zoomed past 2,500 in October, and Japan’s stock market had a strong year.
Here’s what Wien thinks could happen in 2018:
China gets serious about North Korea’s nuclear threat — and gets results
Reuters/KCNA
“China finally decides that a nuclear capability in the hands of an unpredictable leader on its border is not tolerable even though North Korea is a communist buffer between itself and democratic South Korea. China cuts off all fuel and food shipments to North Korea, which agrees to suspend its nuclear development program but not give up its current weapons arsenal.”
Populism spreads
Thomson Reuters
“In the United Kingdom Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Prime Minister. In spite of repressive action by the Spanish government, Catalonia remains turbulent.”
The dollar turns around after a weak year
AP/Jacquelyn Martin
“Real growth exceeds 3% in the United States, which, coupled with the implementation of some components of the Trump pro-business agenda, renews investor interest in owning dollar-denominated assets, and the euro drops to 1.10 and the yen to 120 against the dollar.”
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
