Off & Racing: The Championships8:01
Ray Thomas and Brad Davidson preview this weekend’s races
Big Duke ridden by Craig Williams (right) runs alongside Our Century ridden by Ben Melham in the closing straight during the Irresistible Pools & Spas N E Manion Cup race during Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill Racecourse in Sydney, Saturday, March 18, 2017. (AAP Image/David Moir) NO ARCHIVING, EDITORIAL USE ONLY
The Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Day One of The Championships.
The $ 3m Doncaster Mile headlines a star-studded opening day of The Championships. Four Group 1s will be decided along with the Country Championships Final on a bumper 10-race card at Royal Randwick.
ULTIMATE DONCASTER MILE FORM GUIDE
Big fields and a wet track will ensure a tricky day for punters, but Davo’s still confident of snaring a few winners at big odds.
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Soft 5. Rail: True position
RACE 1 (12.10pm): WIDDEN STAKES (1100m)
OVERVIEW: He might not be the best horse in the race but Solar Patch is a good bet at $ 40. He had to be snagged back first-up before making good ground late albeit in maiden grade. He can settle closer here and the $ 9 the place is very appealing. Alizee ran a gallant second to subsequent Golden Slipper placegetter Tulip last start. She will get back a touch but is the hardest to beat. Condor Heroes will be fitter second-up and will lead and prove hard to catch, while Property will get all the favours behind the speed.
SPEED MAP: Expect Condor Heroes to lead with From Within pushing forward. Property, Sheikha and Solar Patch won’t be far away with Alizee likely to drift back. Speed looks even at best.
DID YOU KNOW: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott (Sheikha) are striking at an amazing 22 per cent in 2016-17.
SUGGESTED BET: SOLAR PATCH each-way at $ 41 (more the place but still having something on the win).
RACE 2 (12.45pm): CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a race in two between Theanswermyfriend and Eusebio. The former will get a soft lead and that is a massive plus. The wet track is a concern though. Eusebio is the up- and-comer and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Group 1 horse next year. He is a month between runs and up in trip but he is bred to love the mile (lack of tempo is my only concern). Acatour looms as the big improver, while Mr Sneaky did beat home Theanswermyfriend last start but the race was set up for him that day.
SPEED MAP: Theanswermyfriend should lob in front and he should get a very soft lead. Veladero won’t be far away, while Eusebio, Acatour and Zenalicious should all drift back.
DID YOU KNOW: Eusebio clocked the second quickest last 200m split of the meeting (11.30s) at Canberra on Cup Day (March 5).
SUGGESTED BET: EUSEBIO to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Theanswermyfriend $ 4.60-$ 3.80 ($ 700 @ $ 4.60, $ 1,000 @ $ 4), Mr Sneaky $ 6-$ 5.50
RACE 3 (1.20pm): CHAIRMAN’S HANDICAP (2600m)
OVERVIEW: Big Duke is the proven performer and the wet track is no concern for him. He won the Manion Cup on protest last start and he is rock-hard fit. International raider Polarisation is the interesting runner. He is being aimed at next weekend’s Sydney Cup but you would expect him to run well here. Aloft won first-up and should get on-pace favours, while Kiwi Rock On is hard to line up.
SPEED MAP: Expect Aloft to be handy along with Vandancer. Big Duke drifts back. Speed looks only fair.
DID YOU KNOW: Polarisation hasn’t raced for 208 days and hasn’t won for 582 days.
SUGGESTED BET: BIG DUKE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Aloft $ 4.60-$ 4.40 ($ 800 @ $ 4.60)
Big Duke, right, will have conditions to suit in the Chairman’s Handicap.Source:AAP
RACE 4 (1.55pm): COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Perfect Dare is really well weighted under the conditions of this race and the only knock is the wet track. Caerless Choice won the Scone heat and that is already shaping up to be a great form line. He was first-up that day and no doubt will be much fitter this weekend. Pumpkin Pie hasn’t been disgraced in stakes races of late and will relish the drop back to this country Final. Galaxy Warrior also has claims on the wet track.
SPEED MAP: There doesn’t seem to be a great deal of speed on paper. Nic’s Vendetta should lead, while Perfect Dare, Free Standing and Pumpkin Pie will all be handy. Caerless Choice should be midfield.
DID YOU KNOW: Six of the top seven home in the Wild Card (all regions) last Sunday came from the Scone region.
SUGGESTED BET: CAERLESS CHOICE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Perfect Dare $ 3.50-$ 3.40 ($ 1,000 @ $ 3.50, $ 500 @ $ 3.50), Stoneyrise $ 26-$ 23
RACE 5 (2.30pm): PJ BELL STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Raiment looks the best bet of the day and she was dominant on wet ground first-up at this track. She will only strip fitter and she posted the quickest time of four 1200m races on Slipper day by at least .92s. Gibraltar Girl trialled well recently and can run a race at odds fresh, while Zumbelina has won four from five starts to date and her two trials have also been impressive. The wetter the better for Samantha but Raiment should be winning.
SPEED MAP: Good speed engaged with Scarlet Rain, French Fern, Sweet Sherry, Prompt Response, Modern Wonder and Conchita all pushing forward. Raiment won’t be far away.
DID YOU KNOW: Raiment (35.75s) clocked the second quickest last 600m split of the Randwick meeting on March 18 only behind Winx.
SUGGESTED BET: RAIMENT to win. Include GIBRALTAR GIRL in all exotics.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Raiment $ 4.60-$ 3.60 ($ 250 x $ 350 e/w @ $ 4.60/$ 1.90, $ 500 @ $ 4.40, $ 500 @ $ 4, $ 900 @ $ 3.60)
RACE 6 (3.10pm): INGLIS SIRES’ (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Frolic and Tulip officially finished second and third in the Golden Slipper and they look the obvious two. Tulip was three deep without cover in the Slipper while Frolic saved all the ground on the inside. Tulip has had two tough runs now but she is the one to beat providing she isn’t looking for the paddock. Memento is a very good roughie at $ 61 if she gets a run (second emergency). She clocked an identical last 600m split to Alizee in the Magic Night last start and she is over the odds. Menari is still on the way up and has upside, while Gunnison, Chauffeur, Invader and One More Honey also have genuine claims.
SPEED MAP: Expect Gunnison, Sircconi and The Mission to all roll forward. Aspect, Trapeze Artist and Tulip won’t be far away. Speed looks genuine.
DID YOU KNOW: The Golden Slipper has produced two of the last four Sires’ winners and six of the past 12 placegetters.
SUGGESTED BET: TULIP to win. Also back MEMENTO each-way at $ 61 if she gains a start.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Menari $ 8-$ 9, Veranillo $ 26-$ 18, Frolic $ 4.60-$ 4.80 ($ 500 @ $ 4.80)
Tulip has had two tough runs but she looks the one to beat in the Inglis Sires’Source:News Corp Australia
RACE 7 (3.50pm): AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)
OVERVIEW: Happy to take on the Kiwis here who have to peak again. Inference was dominant in the Randwick Guineas and then he just didn’t handle the bottomless track in the Rosehill Guineas. He was very stiff in the Victoria Derby last year and will eat up 2400m. Prized Icon’s chances depend on the track conditions but if it dries out to a Soft 7 or better he is a good bet at $ 10. He won the Victoria Derby last spring and clearly just hasn’t been handling the very wet tracks of late. Anaheim clocked the quickest last 200m split in the Rosehill Guineas and just wants a drying track to go close. Gingernuts and Jon Snow next best but they’ve both been up a long time and I’m risking them at the price.
SPEED MAP: Jon Snow and Harper’s Choice should take it up with Prized Icon behind them. Inference and Gingernuts both drift back.
DID YOU KNOW: Barrier one (Anaheim) has produced the Australian Derby winner the past three years.
SUGGESTED BET: INFERENCE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gingernuts $ 3.50-$ 3.40 ($ 2,000 @ $ 3.50), Inference $ 4.40-$ 4.60, Jon Snow $ 6-$ 7.50
RACE 8 (4.30pm): TJ SMITH STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Chautauqua is trying to win the race for the third consecutive year but he is coming back from 1500m and will drift right back in a race with little speed on paper. Russian Revolution interests me. He won The Galaxy first-up despite being trapped three-wide without cover and he only needs to improve a touch off that to go close. Rock Magic, Voodoo Lad and Tivaci are all over the odds and all three are musts for quaddies. Spieth was disappointing in the Newmarket but was back on the rail cluttered up and it could be worth forgiving that performance. He would be favourite for this race on his form prior. Malaguerra comes in nice and fresh, which is his go, but the likely wet track is a worry. I’m taking on Astern first-up.
SPEED MAP: Expect Russian Revolution to take it up with Malaguerra also up there. Spieth and Chautauqua drift back.
DID YOU KNOW: Tivaci clocked the quickest last 600m split (31.77s) and 400m split (22.02s) of the entire meetings at Flemington on January 28 and on March 11 respectively.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bets TIVACI ($ 21) and ROCK MAGIC ($ 26). Boxed trifecta — 2, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14 — $ 25 for 20 per cent.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chautauqua $ 4.60-$ 4.80 ($ 1,000 @ $ 4.60, $ 500 @ $ 4.60), Malaguerra $ 10-$ 9.50 ($ 1,000 @ $ 10), Spieth $ 8-$ 8.50, Russian Revolution $ 7-$ 6.50 ($ 400 @ $ 7)
RACE 9 (5.10pm): DONCASTER MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Another cracking Doncaster Mile. Redkirk Warrior blew them away in the Newmarket first-up and while 1200m to 1600m second-up is unconventional, he won the Sandown Stakes second-up over 1500m last prep and was strong through the line. He would be hard to beat on a dry track but the wet track is the concern. Happy Clapper is back to his best this autumn. He ran second in this race last year but that was with 50.5kg. Le Romain doesn’t get in too bad at the weights in comparison to his rivals and he is too consistent to leave out of anything. Sense Of Occasion is a good roughie and the wet track suits him. He won the Villiers off a similar lead up.
SPEED MAP: Expect Ecuador to take it up, with Testashadow, Le Romain and potentially Endless Drama pushing forward. Happy Clapper shouldn’t be far away. Hauraki, Spectroscope and McCreery should all drift back.
DID YOU KNOW: Chris Waller has won the past four Doncasters and six of the past nine.
SUGGESTED BET: Back HAPPY CLAPPER to win at $ 11. Include REDKRIK WARRIOR and SENSE OF OCCASION in all exotics. Boxed trifecta — 2, 5, 10, 13.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hauraki $ 8-$ 9.50, Le Romain $ 6 unchanged ($ 700 @ $ 6, $ 600 @ $ 6, $ 500 e/w @ $ 6/$ 2.25, $ 500 @ $ 6, $ 450 @ $ 6), Happy Clapper $ 9.50-$ 11, Palentino $ 13-$ 10 ($ 300 @ $ 13, $ 500 e/w @ $ 11/$ 3.50 TWICE, $ 300 @ $ 11), Redkirk Warrior $ 11-$ 10 ($ 500 @ $ 11 TWICE), Mcreery $ 8-$ 11
Happy Clapper looks good value in the Doncaster Mile. Picture: Jenny EvansSource:News Corp Australia
RACE 10 (5.50pm): ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Looks a race in three between La Chatte, Mull Over and High Impulse. I loved the turn of foot La Chatte showed at Kembla Grange on March 10 and she clocked the fifth quickest last 200m of the meet to suggest the extra trip will suit. Mull Over and High Impulse are coming off maiden wins over 1600m and 1800m respectively and both look as if the extra trip won’t bother them. I’m taking on equal favourite Perfect Rhyme who looks a risk at 2000m.
SPEED MAP: Almalita should take it up with Cambage, High Impulse, Face Like Thunder and potentially Dancing Hare all pushing forward. Mull Over and Le Chatte should be midfield or worse. Speed should be even.
DID YOU KNOW: Glyn Schofield rode both Mull Over and High Impulse last start but rides Mull Over in this race.
SUGGESTED BET: LA CHATTE to win.
DAVO’S BEST BET
Race 5, No. 3 — RAIMENT
BEST ROUGHIES
Race 1, No. 5 — SOLAR PATCH ($ 41)
Race 6, No. 18 — MEMENTO ($ 61)
DAVO’S QUADDIE TIPS
1st leg (R7): 1,3,7. 2nd leg (R8): 2,7,8,9,11,14. 3rd leg (R9): 2,5,10,13,14,16. 4th leg (R10): 2,3,8. $ 32.40 for 10 per cent.
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Brad Davidson discuss their best bets for Doncaster/Derby Day.
BD: It doesn’t get much better than this, Ray. The Championships Day 1 at Randwick and four big Group 1s to be run and won.
RT: The quality of the Group 1s and the entire meeting for that matter is outstanding. The Doncaster I think is the fifth major in Australian racing and this is one of the deepest in years.
BD: I’m a Happy Clapper fan and I just reckon he is back to his best this autumn. I would have had Redkirk Warrior on top if the track was dry but he might still be too good for them. Le Romain and $ 51 shot Sense Of Occasion round out my top four.
RT: How good is Redkirk Warrior. The Hayes camp have a massive opinion of him and if he handles the wet track he is going to be hard to beat. But I keep coming back to Le Romain. He is so genuine, ticks all the boxes and is racing in super form.
BD: The Kiwis have had our measure in the Derby lead ups but I’m potting them this weekend, Ray. Gingernuts and Jon Snow are hard to beat on form but they’ve been up a long time and surely they have to be getting a bit weary?
RT: I hope you’re right because I’m with Inference. He is fourth-up, handles rain affected going, loves Randwick and will run this trip right out.
BD: I’m with you Ray and I think Inference is a good bet. I’ll be saving on Prized Icon if the track returns to the soft range and he just hasn’t been handling those heavy tracks lately.
RT: The Golden Slipper form is usually the best form for the Sires’ so how do you go past Frolic, the Slipper runner-up.
BD: She has such a brilliant turn of foot and she will be flashing home at the finish. I leant Tulip’s way though but second emergency Memento is one of the best roughies of the day at $ 61 if she gets a run.
RT: Can Chautauqua do the three-peat?
BD: I’m taking on the big grey and I just don’t think it sets up well for him- 1500m back to 1200m and he is likely to get a long way back in what looks a slowly run race. Russian Revolution on top for me but Tivaci is airborne and just needs to handle the wet track to go close at $ 21.
RT: I take your point but Chautauqua does love Randwick. Best bet time- I reckon I might know your best Brad.
BD: Everybody Loves ‘Raiment’, Ray.
RT: I’m with you, she was so good first-up and you would expect her to take improvement from that run. There’s also been good money for her already, you better get on now mate.
BD: I’m on my way to the TAB as we speak.
Originally published as Race watch: Davo’s tips for Randwick
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