Analysis: Randwick Guineas preview

The three-year-old unleashed a brilliant burst of acceleration to win the Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up then was ridden upside down in the Hobartville Stakes and still won comfortably.

He has drawn barrier four in the Randwick Guineas and with his electric turn of foot, he is the one to beat.

THE FIELD

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THE HISTORY

Hobartville Stakes-Randwick Guineas: Hallowed Crown (2015), Dissident (2014), Ilovethiscity (2011)

Randwick Guineas-Rosehill Guineas: It’s A Dundeel (2013), Metal Bender (2009)

Randwick Guineas-ATC Australian Derby: It’s A Dundeel (2013), Shoot Out (2010)

Randwick Guineas-George Ryder Stakes: Weekend Hussler (2008)

THE MAIN LEAD-UPS

HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400m), Rosehill, February 24

Kementari led home Pierata, D’Argento, Trapeze Artist and Ace High and this quintet renew their rivalry in the Randwick Guineas. Kementari was just too good for his rivals, settling on speed then taking control of the race from the turn to win decisively. Pierata and D’Argento both ran on well, closing on the winner late and they will get their chance over 1600m. Trapeze Artist led and held on well while Ace High held his ground to finish a close fifth. Siege Of Quebec (ninth) and Capital Gain (10th) need to improve considerably to be in the finish on Saturday.

AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m), Flemington, March 4

Peaceful State is on the quick back-up after running very well for second at Group 1 level in the Australian Guineas at Flemington Saturday. Peaceful State settled midfield following eventual winner Grunt into the race from the turn. Peaceful State loomed up to win at the 100m but Grunt held him off for a narrow win.

THE TRAINERS

Since the Randwick Guineas was introduced in 2006, replacing the Canterbury Guineas (1900m), John Hawkes is the only trainer to win the three-year-old classic twice. Hawkes prepared Mentality in 2007 and last year he was co-trainer with his sons Wayne and Michael of Inference. In Saturday’s Randwick Guineas, the only trainer with a runner to have won the classic is James Cummings, who prepares favourite Kementari. Cummings won the race with Hallowed Crown in 2015.

THE JOCKEYS

There are five jockeys with rides in Saturday’s race who already have their names on the honour roll. Jay Ford (Tangled) won on Hotel Grand (2006), Brad Rawiller (Peaceful Stakes) rode Weekend Hussler (2008), Brenton Avdulla (Kaonic) partnered Ilovethiscity (2011), Hugh Bowman (D’Argento) won on Hallowed Crown (2015) and Christian Reith (Siege Of Quebec) scored on Le Romain (2016).

THE SPEED MAP

Trapeze Artist looks the only leader but given he is a query at 1600m, perhaps he will be ridden more conservatively early. His career-best effort winning the Golden Rose came when he was settled off the speed. If Trapeze Artist does lead, he should be able to control tempo and turn this into a sprint home. If he doesn’t lead, then Condor or perhaps Siege Of Quebec will roll forward and take up the front-running role. Kementari has drawn gate four and should be able to settle just in behind the leaders with the run of the race.

THE FAVOURITES

Favourites won four of the first six renewals of the Randwick Guineas but none have saluted since Ilovethiscity at $ 1.90 in 2011. There has been some boilover results in this race including Metal Bender ($ 21) in 2009 and Le Romain ($ 21) in 2016.

THE SPECIALIST

Kaonic has raced once at Randwick for a very impressive win over the 1600m course in the spring. He is unbeaten in two starts over the “mile”. Ace High, Kementari, Pierata, D’Argento and Tangmere have all won races at Randwick, while Age Of Fire, Sully, Capital Gain and Condor have won at 1600m.

AND THE VERDICT IS …

Kementari unleashed a brilliant burst of acceleration to win the Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up then was ridden upside down in the Hobartville Stakes and still won comfortably. He sat outside the leader then forged clear at Rosehill to win with authority. This talented colt has drawn barrier four, should settle in the front half of the field with the run of the race. It won’t matter to Kementari what the tempo is as this colt relaxes well for jockey Glyn Schofield and his turn of foot is electric. He ticks all the boxes.

Pierata is the danger. He was having his first start in six weeks in the Hobartville Stakes when he came from midfield and took ground off Kementari late when beaten a length into second place. Pierata will be fitter, he has drawn the rails barrier and the 1600m should be ideal. He is the danger.

Kaonic and D’Argento, the Chris Waller-trained duo, are definite chances. Kaonic has been a little disappointing in his two runs back but he is up to his right trip now and can improve sharply. He is over the odds. D’Argento was finishing strongly late for third in the Hobartville and he will also appreciate the extra trip. The stablemates need this race to be run at a solid tempo to have their best chance of winning.

Trapeze Artist is third-up and it is worth remembering his two best wins, the Black Opal Stakes and Golden Rose, have come at the same stage of previous preparations.

Ace High is a dual Group 1 winner and getting out to his right distance range now. Peaceful State comes off a Group 1 placing last week, while Siege Of Quebec, Condor and Tangmere can run competitively at big odds.

RAY’S TIPS

1 KEMENTARI

2 Pierata

3 Kaonic

4 D’Argento

Best Outsider: Ace High