Danish Saxo Bank traditionally publishes its annual list of “outrageous predictions” that may really shake up the world if the listed events ever happen. However, this year’s forecast doesn’t seem so fantastic.
Most of the events, included in the annual report published by the Copenhagen-based financial institution, are featuring so-called black swans – events that are unlikely to occur but would lead to catastrophic consequences.
Although the bank’s predictions are meant to be taken lightheartedly, Saxo Bank occasionally gets it right. At the end of 2017, the bank’s analysts said that Bitcoin would surge to $ 60,000, and then plunge to $ 1,000. Though the world’s best-known cryptocurrency failed to reach the predicted level last year, it still crashed to $ 4,000 per coin after swelling to more than $ 20,000.
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“We have been publishing Outrageous Predictions for more than a decade and think this year’s list is both fascinating and shocking while encouraging investors to think outside the consensus box. It is important to underline that the Outrageous Predictions should not be considered Saxo’s official market outlook, it is instead the events and market moves deemed outliers with huge potential for upsetting consensus views,” Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said, commenting on the Outrageous Predictions.
The list of unserious forecasts for 2019 includes the following events:
Apple “secures funding” for Tesla at $ 520 per share
Acknowledging that Tesla needs more financial power and Apple needs to expand its ecosystem to the car in a more profound way than that represented by the current Apple CarPlay software, Apple goes after Tesla, the Danish lender predicts. The tech giant secures funding for the deal at a 40 percent premium of $ 520 dollars per share, which is $ 100 more compared to the price offered by Elon Musk in his infamous tweet.
EU announces a debt jubilee
Italy’s economic problems spread across banking systems of other European countries. When contagion comes to France, policymakers understand that the EU faces the abyss.
Germany enters recession
The Europe’s strongest economy is dragged down by the car making industry. The country fails to cross over to electric vehicles.
“2019 will be the peak of anti-globalization sentiment and will create a laser-like focus on costs, domestic markets and production, and the further use of big data and reduced pollution footprint – the exact opposite of the trends that have benefitted Germany since the 1980s. As such, we see a recession arriving as early as Q3 2019,” the report stresses.
Trump tells Powell “you’re fired”
If the US Federal Reserve increases the key rate once again, the country’s economy and stock market are doomed to plunge.
“By the summer, with equities in a deep funk and the US yield curve having moved to outright inversion, an incensed President Trump fires Powell and appoints Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari in his stead,” Saxo’s forecast reads.
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Corporate credit crunch pushes Netflix into GE’s vortex
Netflix is seen as America’s most debt-ladened corporation. That threatens investors; moreover, the company faces tough competition from Disney that commercializes its streaming video services.
“The negative chain reaction in corporate bonds sets off massive uncertainty in high-yield bonds leading to a Black Tuesday for exchange-traded funds,” Saxo Bank predicts.
IMF and World Bank announce intent to stop measuring GDP, focus instead on productivity
As soon as gross domestic product (GDP) is not able to reflect an economic performance precisely, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank may offer to calculate labor productivity, as it can be considered as the greatest determinant of the standard of living over time.
“This unprecedented decision by the IMF and the World Bank also symbolizes the transition away from the central bank-dominated era that has been associated with the collapse in global productivity since the global financial crisis,” the forecast reads.
X-Class solar flare creates chaos and inflicts $ 2 trillion of damage
“In 2019, as Solar Cycle 25 kicks into gear, the earth isn’t so lucky and a solar storm strikes the Western hemisphere, taking down most satellites on the wrong side of the earth at the time and unleashing untold chaos on GPS-reliant air and surface travel/ logistics and electric power infrastructure,” Saxo analysts say.
The disastrous event is set to cause financial damage of at least $ 2 trillion.
Global Transportation Tax (GTT) enacted as climate panic spreads
Another hot summer may make Europe take thought about reducing CO2 emissions. Governments across the world are expected to impose a transport tax that would target international airlines and shipping corporations. The new tax charge is set to $ 50 per ton of CO2 emissions.
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“Stocks in the tourism, airline, and shipping industries plunge on increased uncertainty and lower growth,” Saxo Bank predicts.
Prime Minister Corbyn sends GBPUSD to parity
After winning the election the Labour government starts implementing the strategy of a mid-20th century-style socialist “scorched earth” to liquidate inequality.
Utilities and the rail networks are re-nationalised and fiscal expansion sees deficits yawn wider to the tune of 5 percent of GDP, which will reportedly lead to pound plunge.
Australia launches “TARP Down Under” after nationalizing the big four banks
The key reason among the expected recession is plummeting credit growth in the country’s property market. Overvalued mortgage-backed property ledger and banks are forced to further tighten the screws on lending. The bust also contributes to a sharp decline in residential investment and GDP decline.
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