Bond markets are sending an economic warning signal — here’s when the next US recession may hit

• The spread between US 2-year and 10-year bond yields – a key indicator of recessions – fell sharply to its lowest level in 11 years this week.
• Deutsche Bank says the risk of a recession is “very low” over the next 12 months, but rises significantly to 80% over a three-year time frame.
• However, the analysts said if and when a recession does occur, other indicators suggest it shouldn’t be a particularly steep one.

Some serious rumblings in the bond market at the start of this week have refocused attention back on the US yield curve.

Trade fears and concerns over the growth outlook saw yields on benchmark US 10-year bonds fall more than 10 basis points — an unusually sharp move — to 2.91%, just 11 basis points higher than US 2-year yields.

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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