The 90th Academy Awards are this weekend and you know what that means. It’s time to fill our your prediction ballot, head to the Oscar party of your choosing, and win a bunch of money. Winning Oscar betting pools is a staple of film fandom. Embrace it!
But before you fill out your ballot, you should consult some experts. And after you’ve done that, check out /Film’s 2018 Oscar predictions.
2018 Oscar Predictions
Here’s how this works. Each member of the /Film staff filled out their own ballot. In each category, they had 100 points to spend. They could put all 100 points on a single nominee or split it amongst the nominees as they saw fit. If they felt someone was a lock, they could put all of their points on a single nominee. If they were unsure or felt the category was hotly contested, they could hedge their bets. We then collected everyone’s points together for a big group prediction.
Naturally, we’re keeping score and will reveal which staff member won our office pool next week. The winner gets bragging rights for a year.
And now, onto our predictions!
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name – 0 points
Darkest Hour – 0 points
Dunkirk – 50 points
Get Out – 100 points
Lady Bird – 0 points
Phantom Thread – 0 points
The Post – 10 points
The Shape of Water – 300 points
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 80 points
This is one of the most unpredictable Best Picture races in years, but the edge still went to The Shape of Water. With 13 nominations, it seems like it’s the least controversial choice…and it’s a damn good movie, to boot. Still, it wouldn’t surprise us in the slightest to see an upset from Get Out or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name – 50 points
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread – 100 points
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out – 20 points
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour – 400 points
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. – 0 points
A highly respected actor buries himself behind mountains of make-up to play a real-life historical figure in a performance that is huge and dramatic and full of showy moments? Yeah, this is Gary Oldman’s trophy…unless the Academy decides to give Daniel Day-Lewis Oscar #4 or realizes that Timothée Chalamet is a revelation.
Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water – 60 points
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 430 points
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya – 20 points
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird – 70 points
Meryl Streep – The Post – 30 points
This is another category that feels like a sure thing. It’s been an uphill battle for Three Billboards all awards season long, but everyone seems to agree that Frances McDormand is astounding in the lead role. Expect her to collect her second Oscar.
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project – 170 points
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 25 points
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water – 20 points
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World – 0 points
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 385 points
Six months ago, this was Willem Dafoe’s award to lose. However, Sam Rockwell’s momentum over the past few months cannot be denied and he’s looking like the favorite now. But if anyone can upset, it’s Dafoe, playing against type in a well-regarded movie that didn’t receive much Oscar love elsewhere.
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound – 0 points
Allison Janney – I, Tonya – 530 points
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread – 0 points
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird – 70 points
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water – 0 points
If this is anyone other than Allison Janney, we will eat an ice skate. The beloved character actress used to dominate the Emmy Awards, so it’s about time she got an Oscar.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread – 30 points
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water – 440 points
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird – 0 points
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk – 60 points
Jordan Peele – Get Out – 70 points
Even as Best Picture remains an open race, Best Director seems sewn up in favor of Guillermo del Toro. His momentum is nothing short of unstoppable. Plus, people like him and his movie. Win-win.
Animated Feature
The Boss Baby – 0 points
The Breadwinner – 20 points
Coco – 550 points
Ferdinand – 0 points
Loving Vincent – 30 points
Yeah, there’s always a chance of an upset here, but Pixar’s Coco has this one locked down. No other major animated release came close to touching it last year.
Animated Short
Dear Basketball – 280 points
Garden Party – 50 points
Lou – 100 points
Negative Space – 120 points
Revolting Rhymes – 50 points
As is often the case with the short film awards, your guess is as good as ours. The star power behind Dear Basketball (Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant, with a score by John Williams) gives it an edge in this case.
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory – 470 points
The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – 0 points
Logan – Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green – 20 points
Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin – 80 points
Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – 30 points
Call Me By Your Name has to get some love somewhere, so it might as well be here. It helps that screenwriter James Ivory is an 89-year old veteran screenwriter and director who has been nominated three other times. He will get his Oscar this weekend.
Original Screenplay
The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – 40 points
Get Out – Jordan Peele – 365 points
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig – 80 points
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor – 10 points
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh – 105 points
Get Out feels like it’s just out of reach when it comes to Best Picture and Best Director, but Best Original Screenplay feels like the right place to honor it. However, Lady Bird and Three Billboards aren’t going down without a fight.
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 – 465 points
Darkest Hour – 0 points
Dunkirk – 20 points
Mudbound – 0 points
The Shape of Water – 115 points
Blade Runner 2049 marks Roger Deakins’ 14th Oscar nomination. Will he finally win? Well, he did shoot the best looking movie of 2017, but that hasn’t always mattered in this category. The Shape of Water could pick this one up if it gathers enough momentum.
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail – 10 points
Faces Places – 250 points
Icarus – 220 points
Last Men in Aleppo – 110 points
Strong Island – 10 points
There’s no “sure thing” nominee this year in this category, so it’s a coin toss between Faces Places and Icarus. Although Last Men in Aleppo could sneak in there.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Edith+Eddie – 90 points
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 – 220 points
Heroin(e) – 210 points
Knife Skills – 50 points
Traffic Stop – 50 points
Place your bets! We sure did! But we have no idea!
Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary – 300 points
The Eleven O’Clock – 50 points
My Nephew Emmett – 100 points
The Silent Child – 100 points
Watu Wote/All of Us – 50 points
Once again: we have no idea. These are the categories that randomly make or break every Oscar prediction ballot.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile) – 380 points
The Insult (Lebanon) – 0 points
Loveless (Russia) – 0 points
On Body and Soul (Hungary) – 100 points
The Square (Sweden) – 120 points
A Fantastic Woman seems to have the edge going into the weekend, but don’t count out The Square or On Body and Soul. However, the former allows the Oscars to honor a good movie and make a progressive political statement, which may give it the edge.
Film Editing
Baby Driver – 300 points
Dunkirk – 300 points
I, Tonya – 0 points
The Shape of Water – 0 points
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – 0 points
Baby Driver and Dunkirk are the two best edited movies of 2017, so here they are, neck and neck in our Oscars predictions. Dunkirk may have the edge because it’s a big, frantic war movie, but awarding Baby Driver would certainly make the Academy look hip.
Sound Editing
Baby Driver – 100 points
Blade Runner 2049 – 0 points
Dunkirk – 500 points
The Shape of Water – 0 points
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points
War movies tend to dominate this category and Dunkirk will probably walk away with this one. Still, don’t count out Baby Driver‘s impressive soundscape.
Sound Mixing
Baby Driver – 150 points
Blade Runner 2049 – 0 points
Dunkirk – 300 points
The Shape of Water – 0 points
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 150 points
This is probably another win for Dunkirk, but Baby Driver and Star Wars: The Last Jedi could give it a run for its gold.
Production Design
Beauty and the Beast – 0 points
Blade Runner 2049 – 160 points
Darkest Hour – 0 points
Dunkirk – 0 points
The Shape of Water – 440 points
Many headlines were written about how The Shape of Water achieved its gorgeous, gothic sets on a tight budget. That narrative gives it the edge on Blade Runner 2049, which had all the money in the world.
Original Score
Dunkirk – 50 points
Phantom Thread – 220 points
The Shape of Water – 330 points
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell – 0 points
This could be a tight one. The Shape of Water has the edge because this category sometimes favors Best Picture frontrunners. Still, don’t count out Jonny Greenwood’s Phantom Thread score, especially since many believe him to be long overdue for an Oscar.
Original Song
“Mighty River” from Mudbound – Mary J. Blige – 50 points
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name – Sufjan Stevens – 0 points
“Remember Me” from Coco – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez – 440 points
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall – Diane Warren and Common – 0 points
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman – Benj Pasek and Justin Paul – 110 points
If The Greatest Showman had received more love in other categories, it would own this trophy. But it didn’t, so it doesn’t. It has some incredibly stiff competition from Coco.
Makeup and Hair
Darkest Hour – 600 points
Victoria and Abdul – 0 points
Wonder – 0 points
Look, they transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. This category is a lock unlike any others.
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast – 60 points
Darkest Hour – 0 points
Phantom Thread – 420 points
The Shape of Water – 100 points
Victoria and Abdul – 0 points
Phantom Thread is a period movie about dressmaking! It should win this one! It hits all of the right buttons! And yet, The Shape of Water lurks in the background, watching and waiting…
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 – 280 points
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – 0 points
Kong: Skull Island – 0 points
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – 0 points
War for the Planet of the Apes – 320 points
Does this award go to the remarkable motion capture performances of War for the Planet of the Apes or the vivid future cityscapes of Blade Runner 2049? We give the edge to Caesar.
The post The /Film Crew’s 2018 Oscar Predictions appeared first on /Film.
