Stable Watch: Best bets for Randwick

TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

THE EARLY OIL: CAULFIELD

ROYAL RANDWICK

WEATHER: Fine

RAIL: True

TRACK: Good 4

R1: ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HCP (1100m) 12.40pm

OVERVIEW:Calculated is a very good horse in the making but he is first-up over 1100m and shouldering 60.5kg. This is short of his best but I still expect this classy colt to be charging home. Awesome Pluck is another loaded with potential and is better suited over the short course than Calculated. However, Awesome Pluck has drawn a little awkwardly in barrier eight and it was a wide barrier that brought him undone at Warwick Farm during the winter. He resumes on Saturday off a very good Rosehill barrier trial win last week and although he is short enough at $ 2.80, I have him on top over Calculated. Savatiano has the race fitness on her side and is better suited on a firm track. The big watch is From Within, who is resuming for a new stable but looked very sharp in her Randwick trial win.

SPEED MAP: There isn’t a lot of early speed here and From Within should be able to find the lead from her good draw while Awesome Pluck has the opportunity to work across and settle outside the filly. This pair can control the tempo and make it hard for the backmarkers to catch them.

DID YOU KNOW:From Within, a former stablemate of Calculated, will wear a cross-over nose band and ear muffs for the first time.

BETTING STRATEGY: Awesome Pluckto win, with a small saver on From Within.

MARKET MOVERS: Calculated $ 2.80-$ 2.60 ($ 1,900 @ $ 2.60); Awesome Pluck $ 2.80 unchanged ($ 500 @ $ 2.80 TWICE, $ 400 @ $ 2.80)

R2: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1000m) 1.20pm

OVERVIEW: Port Macquarie trainer Jenny Graham has two entries at the Randwick meeting and could easily leave after the second with a stable brace from Awesome Pluck in the opener and Victorem in the TAB Highway. Victorem is also resuming on Saturday but showed plenty of ability with dominant wins at Kempsey and Grafton during winter. He has had two trials to prepare for his return including an eye-catching effort to finish second behind Group 1 winner Music Magnate at Rosehill last week. Victorem will settle off-speed but has a powerful finishing surge. Takookacod had absolutely no luck in Volpe’s TAB Highway at Rosehill last start but is well drawn, should get the right run and be very competitive. All Stand is in great form and watch for the improving Buddy Honest to run well at double figure odds.

SPEED MAP: This field is loaded with on-pacers and they should fly over the 1000m. The likes of All Stand, Buddy Honest, Jazee Nic, Leica’s Lass, Miss Fisher and Muzzleburst have good early speed so this race could be set up for the swoopers.

DID YOU KNOW: Blaike McDougall, rider of Takookacod, won’t be able to claim his full 2kg allowance but the sprinter will carry 52kg.

BETTING STRATEGY: Victoremto win.

MARKET MOVERS: Victorem $ 4-$ 2.20 ($ 400 @ $ 4, $ 600 @ $ 3.60, $ 400 @ $ 3.60, $ 650 @ $ 3.20, $ 400 @ $ 2.90, $ 1,000 @ $ 2.70, $ 1,000 @ $ 2.50, $ 700 @ $ 2.50, $ 300 @ $ 2.50, $ 1,000 @ $ 2.25, $ 300 @ $ 2.25, $ 900 @ $ 2.20)

R3: CHRISTMAS CUP (2400m) 1.55pm

OVERVIEW: Broadside is into $ 1.70 but it is impossible to tip against him tomorrow. He was having his first run in more than two months when he dominated his rivals in the Listed ATC Cup over 2000m at Rosehill two weeks ago. He will strip even fitter today and is ready to go out to 2400m. Vassal won at Rosehill over 2400m two starts back carrying 60kg and drops to the 53kg limit on Saturday. He can mix his form but the big weight drop brings him into contention. Prince Cheri likes his races spaced and his recent form is sound. Green Sweet was first-up after a long spell in the ATC Cup when fifth to Broadside and he did win the Albury Cup at his second run back last preparation. He is getting to 2400m quickly this campaign, a staying trip he has not been tested at previously.

SPEED MAP: The outside barrier gives Josh Parr options on Broadside. There is some speed drawn underneath with Green Sweet, Shalmaneser and Hundred likely to roll forward. Parr can cruise over on Broadside and position the favourite where he is comfortable.

DID YOU KNOW: Broadside, who began his race career in New Zealand, has never won two races in succession in Australia.

BETTING STRATEGY: Broadside to win.

MARKET MOVERS: Broadside $ 1.75-$ 1.70; Green Sweet $ 13-$ 9.50

R4: INGLIS NURSERY (1000m) 2.30pm

OVERVIEW: This is a difficult race to assess — a big field of 14 including five first starters, and various formlines clashing from Sydney, NSW provincial and country, and Melbourne. I am leaning to one of the unraced youngsters, Irish Bet from the John O’Shea stable. Irish Bet was a brilliant winner of a Warwick Farm barrier trial earlier this month where he was strong through the line. He looks a natural runner. Let Me Sleep On It is over the odds at $ 17. She was three-wide without cover on debut, ran wide on the home turn but regained balance and closed to within a length when second at Gosford. Better suited on the bigger Randwick track and the inside gate is a huge advantage. Miss Invincible led for a long way on debut at Rosehill over 1100m, the shorter trip is in her favour but gate 13 is a big leveller. The Tony McEvoy-trained duo of Sanctimonious and Logan River were placed on debut on a heavy track at Sandown but they have both drawn off the track.

SPEED MAP: Miss Invincible has brilliant early pace but can she cross from her wide barrier? There is plenty of speed drawn underneath her ensuring this is a fast-run 1000m.

DID YOU KNOW: The training partnership of Peter and Paul Snowden, and Melbourne’s Tony McEvoy are the leading two-year-old stables this season with four wins each. The Snowden’s are represented by Cosimo while McEvoy is starting stablemates Sanctimonious and Logan River.

BETTING STRATEGY: Irish Bet to win and something on Let Me Sleep On It each way.

MARKET MOVERS: Logan River $ 11-$ 9 ($ 500 @ $ 11, $ 200 @ $ 9.50)

R5: CATANACH’S HCP (1200m) 3.05pm

OVERVIEW: Sugar Bella made a real statement with her comeback Canterbury win at a night meeting earlier this month, unleashing from back in the field and putting nearly three lengths on her rivals. She was having her first start in 16 months and has improved her race record to three wins from four starts. Although this is a significant rise in grade, she is a very promising mare. Secret Trial was doing her best work on the line when fourth to Don’t Tease Me when resuming over the Rosehill 1100m. Fitter now and drawn to get the gun run. Machinegun Jubs wasn’t suited when the track was downgraded to heavy at Rosehill but she was very game winning at that track two starts back. In Times Of War is never far away but finds it hard to win.

SPEED MAP: Purrari, resuming off a long spell, may lead by default here although Il Mio Destino, Machinegun Jubs and Anatola will settle on speed. Expect a solid tempo.

DID YOU KNOW: Secret Trail has a very good second-up record with three wins and two placings from six attempts.

BETTING STRATEGY: Sugar Bella is probably under the odds at $ 3.60 considering she is confronted by a big rise in grade but she looks a real talent. Back her to win and take a box trifecta 2,3,4,12.

MARKET MOVERS: Sugar Bella $ 4-$ 3.60 ($ 500 @ $ 4, $ 1,250 @ $ 3.60, $ 750 @ $ 3.60)

R6: RIGHT2DRIVE HCP (1600m) 3.40pm

OVERVIEW: Looks a showdown between two in-form gallopers, Sedanzer and Dreamforce. The early betting suggests there is little between them with Sedanzer favourite at $ 3.40 and Dreamforce pressing at $ 4. The barrier draw is the key here with Dreamforce drawn wide in 14, meaning he will need to work hard early to get across into his preferred on-pace position. Sedanzer settles midfield early in her races which gives her the opportunity to produce that brilliant finishing speed that has swept her to impressive wins at Rosehill over 1400m and 1500m. She is creeping up in the weights but is still the one to beat. Dreamforce was far too good for his rivals over 1500m at Rosehill last start but could be left vulnerable if he has to work too hard early. Chatelard is a promising type who will be running on well and Zourkhan’s recent trial win was exceptional.

SPEED MAP: Dreamforce likes to lead and although he has drawn very wide, there is not a lot of speed drawn underneath him. Zourkhan rolls forward, as will lightweights Magicalease and Brogue.

DID YOU KNOW: Peribsen was born in Ireland, sired by Australian champion stallion Lonhro when he was shuttling to stand at stud in America, has had eight starts in France and makes his Australian debut on Saturday.

BETTING STRATEGY: Sedanzer to win.

MARKET MOVERS: Sedanzer $ 4-$ 3.40 ($ 750 @ $ 4, $ 300 @ $ 3.60)

R7: VILLIERS STAKES (1600m) 4.20pm

OVERVIEW:I’m sticking with Interlocuter. He has scored successive wins over 1600m 1800m and 1900m before being freshened with a month between runs going into the Villiers. A very talented galloper who looks fully equipped to cope with the jump to Group 2 level. Cabeza De Vaca had excuses last start but back on a firm track over the Randwick 1600m, he will take a power of running down. Mister Sea Wolf ran a blinder at his Australian debut and can only improve. Mighty Lucky hasn’t been far away in recent starts and is the value runner.

SPEED MAP: Cabeza De Vaca enjoys the front-running role. He should control the tempo with stablemate Dark Eyes coming over from his wide barrier to settle on speed. This should be a solidly run Randwick mile.

DID YOU KNOW: Destiny’s Kiss has 59kg and if he can score an upset Villiers win, it will be biggest winning weight in the race since Filipino carried a similar handicap in 1948.

BETTING STRATEGY: Interlocuter to win and will have a saver on Mighty Lucky at $ 21.

MARKET MOVERS: Interlocuter $ 3-$ 3.20 ($ 500 @ $ 3 THREE TIMES; Red Excitement $ 15-$ 14; Crack Me Up $ 8-$ 7 ($ 400 @ $ 8, $ 300 @ $ 7, $ 250 @ $ 7); Mister Sea Wolf $ 6-$ 5.50

R8: RAZOR SHARP HCP (1200m) 5pm

OVERVIEW: Tough race so I’m going wide with Palazzo Pubblico. She ran a blinder first-up when third to Ball Of Muscle down the straight at Flemington last month. She has been kept fresh since but trialled very well at Rosehill last week. I Thought So has also been freshened since a stakes placing at Flemington and trialled brilliantly at Warwick Farm earlier this month. Drawn to get the run of the race. Calanda is close to a win, Isorich is very under-rated, Kuro has been luckless this campaign and Chetwood could win this on his best form.

SPEED MAP: Chetwood has drawn the car park but he is a big horse and needs room to roll. He has brilliant early speed but will need to be ridden aggressively to cross this field with so much speed drawn inside him.

DID YOU KNOW: Japonisme is the only Group 1 winner in the field but he hasn’t won a race since for 20 months.

BETTING STRATEGY: Palazzo Pubblico each way at $ 15 and I can’t let Isorich go around at $ 19 without having something on him.

MARKET MOVERS: Chetwood $ 8-$ 6 ($ 400 @ $ 7, $ 250 @ $ 6); I Thought So $ 6-$ 4.80

R9: TAB.COM.AU HCP (1400m) 5.40pm

OVERVIEW: Uptown Lad was considered suspect in heavy going but that didn’t stop him from destroying his rivals at Rosehill two weeks ago. He has scored two very impressive wins in as many starts this campaign and can continue his rich vein of form. Malaise produced a pleasing return at Canterbury and will be fitter. Redouble is better suited on a firm track and expect an improved showing from Heavenly Anna.

SPEED MAP: The Pharoah is out to his right distance range on Saturday and should lead with Redouble, Desert General and He’s A Given settling in forward positions. Expect an even tempo.

DID YOU KNOW: Heavenly Anna excels over the Randwick 1400m course where she has won twice previously.

BETTING STRATEGY: Uptown Lad to win box trifecta 2,4,5,9.

MARKET MOVERS: Powerline $ 8-$ 7.50 ($ 2500 x $ 5000 e/w @ $ 8/$ 2.75)

Uptown Lad $ 8-$ 7.50