RACING editor Ray Thomas runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens.
THE CALL: WINX SKIPS ASCOT TO TARGET FOURTH COX PLATE
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Soft 5. Rail: 4m out.
R1: THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400m)
OVERVIEW: The two-year-old racing has been very competitive this autumn and expect something similar on Saturday with many of these on trial for the ATC Sires Produce Stakes next week. I’m leaning to Spin, who comes into this race off a close second in the Skyline Stakes then his third behind Written By in the Pago Pago Stakes. The blinkers are off and winkers go on Saturday. He’s still learning but is loaded with talent. Irukandji, by triple crown winner It’s A Dundeel, shows staying promise and ran on well late when fifth in the Pago Pago Stakes. Sweet Ava is an emerging filly and comes out of the Magic Night Stakes when she was a game third to Sunlight. Nasaayim had no luck in the VRC Sires Produce Stakes last start.
SPEED MAP: There is no real speed but the big field should generate tempo. Sweet Ava is likely to roll forward and settle on the pace with Spin also likely to take up a handy position. Ringerdingding and Aristocractic Miss are drawn right off the track but are likely to go forward early.
DID YOU KNOW: The fillies haven’t got a great record in recent years in this race with Flying Snitzel (2012) the last to win it. Two of the last three winners, Takedown (2015) and The Mission (2017) have trained on to win at Group 1 level.
BETTING STRATEGY: SPIN to win, saver on SWEET AVA.
R2: NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Arbeitsam is a tough on-pacer who is going out to 2000m for the first time. He goes into this race off a very game Ajax Stakes effort when fifth, beaten less than a length behind Comin’ Through. Arbeitsam races well on this track and I’m banking on him running the trip. Mackintosh is the danger. He will be peaking now after two runs from a spell, including his fast-finishing third to Auvray in the Sky High Stakes. Almost Court was very good in the Canberra Cup and is a promising stayer. Big watch on One Foot In Heaven making his Australian debut, but he is a Group 2 winner in France. He wasn’t tested in a recent Warwick Farm trial.
SPEED MAP: Arbeitsam likes to roll forward and lead but so does Almost Court. I expect Almost Court will take up the frontrunning with Arbeitsam tucking in behind and the tempo solid.
DID YOU KNOW: The last three winners of this race all begin their race careers in Europe — Pornichet (2015), It’s Somewhat (2016) and Assign (2017).
BETTING STRATEGY: ARBEITSAM each way.
R3: STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: A very competitive sprint. Burning Passion impressed with his comeback effort, finishing the closest of thirds to Crack Me Up and Care To Think in the Liverpool City Cup. He has had nearly a month between runs but was given a soft barrier trial leading into Saturday’s race. Underrated sprinter drawn to get the gun run. New Universe is a very good lightweight chance. He was unlucky last start, having to change course in the straight before charging home to run third behind Dothraki. Nieta just got too far back in the Dothraki race and didn’t get much clear galloping room in the straight when resuming. She will be hard to beat. Oxford Poet scored a deserved win last start and he does race well on this track.
SPEED MAP: Oxford Poet likes to lead and should be able to dictate the tempo here. Isorich will cross and probably settle outside the leader with Inz ‘N’ Out also handy.
DID YOU KNOW: Nieta, Spright or No Interest is attempting to become the first mare to win this race since Camena in 2001.
BETTING STRATEGY: BURNING PASSION each way.
R4: EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)
OVERVIEW: The majority of this field raced in the Coolmore Classic two weeks ago won by the Ron Quinton-trained Daysee Doom. It is hard to tip against the mare as she is in such outstanding form but I am leaning to her stablemate Dixie Blossoms. She had a luckless run before finishing a close sixth in the Coolmore after winning the Guy Walter Stakes brilliantly at her previous start. The small field suits Dixie Blossoms and she will be finishing strongly. Daysee Doom is very genuine and will be the one they have to beat. Alizee has struggled at her past two starts but she is a top quality filly and I’m prepared to give her another chance. Prompt Response is very underrated and will run her usual competitive race.
DID YOU KNOW: Daysee Doom holds a 4-3 lead over Dixie Blossoms in head-to-head clashes, and at Rosehill Daysee Doom has beaten her stablemate every time. Zanbagh has won the last two Emancipation Stakes.
BETTING STRATEGY: DIXIE BLOSSOMS to win.
R5: TULLOCH STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: An impossible race. I am leaning to Primitivo each way. He is still a maiden after four starts but he shows staying promise. His effort to close late for second in the Canberra Guineas was indicative of a horse looking for a middle distance. Astoria has been solid enough in three Melbourne starts, he is well drawn and Hugh Bowman goes on so there is a lot to like about his chances. Love Waves thrashed the older horses at Gosford and is an emerging stayer. There is a boom on Mongolian Marshal, Weather For You is worth another chance and the Chris Waller duo, Augustus and Tangmere, have staying potential.
SPEED MAP: Another big field that should generate a solid tempo. Weather With You will roll forward and could lead with Astoria, Levendi, Belfast, Our Mantra, Love Waves and Bullet Shot all likely to settle on the pace.
DID YOU KNOW: Jon Snow won the Tulloch Stakes-ATC Australian Derby double last year, emulating Starcraft (2004), Universal Prince (2001), Ivory’s Irish (1994), Mahogany (1994), Durbridge 91991) and Prolific (1984).
BETTING STRATEGY: PRIMITIVO each way, box trifecta 1,6,7,8,14.
R6: TANCRED STAKES (2400m)
OVERVIEW: Gailo Chop won the Ranvet Stakes last week with real authority — but can he run a strong 2400m? To be fair, Gailo Chop has never been tested at the Tancred trip but the way he powered through the line in the Ranvet suggests he will run it. However, I do like Almandin, the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner and an outstanding stayer. He was luckless in the Australian Cup last start but gets out to his right distance range on Saturday. Single Gaze is going to tuck in behind the leaders with the run of the race and she is racing in great form. Auvray was very good in the Sky High Stakes and he is better at 2400m. I’m wary of the Japanese stayer Ambitious, too.
SPEED MAP: Gailo Chop is likely to take up the early running with Lasqueti Spirit going forward to apply pressure mid-race, ensuring this is a genuine staying test.
DID YOU KNOW: Ambitious once defeated Japanese superhorse Kitasan Black in a Group 2 2000m race.
BETTING STRATEGY: ALMANDIN to win, box trifecta 1,2,6,9.
R7: VINERY STUD STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: All Too Soon got a long way back against the older horses at Rosehill last start but she worked home very well out wide to just miss running down Multifacets. It was a super effort from a filly with obvious staying ability. I’m going to lean her way over Luvaluva who was very good winning the Kembla Grange Classic at 1600m last start. Luvaluva is even better suited at 2000m on Saturday. Unforgotten’s Phar Lap Stakes win was exceptional and gives the impression she will handle a middle distance. Aloisia has had no luck in two starts back this autumn and can improve sharply here.
SPEED MAP: There isn’t a noted frontrunner in the field, placing a question mark on the tempo. Perhaps Hiyaam and Danzdanzdance will settle on speed but I doubt they will be breaking the track record in this race.
DID YOU KNOW: Hugh Bowman can equal the race-riding record of Mick Dittman if he wins his third Vinery Stud Stakes on Unforgotten. Bowman has won the race previously on Norzita and Lucia Valentina.
BETTING STRATEGY: ALL TOO SOON each way.
R8: DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500m)
OVERVIEW: Mister Sea Wolf resumed in a strong Newcastle Newmarket and looked home when he forged to the front inside the final 200m only to be swamped by the rampant Lanciato. Mister Sea Wolf should have derived improvement from that run and he looks hard to beat here. Interlocuter has been kept fresh since his solid comeback effort in the Liverpool City Cup a month ago but he was tuned up for this race with a Warwick Farm trial hitout last Friday. Spectroscope (fourth) and Shiraz (third) both come out of the Newcastle Newmarket where they also very good at their comeback runs.
SPEED MAP: Ecuador, who looked sharp in a recent trial, should control the tempo here with Kingsguard likely to go forward from his wide barrier and settle in a forward position.
DID YOU KNOW: Spectroscope won this race last year when second-up from a spell.
BETTING STRATEGY: MISTER SEA WOLF to win.
R9: SYDNEY’S WEST APP HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Osborne Bulls, winner of five of his seven starts, was very unlucky at Kembla Grange when held up behind runners until well inside the final 200m. Once he gained clear galloping room he finished strongly for third to Oxford Poet. He can atone on Saturday. Special Missile had trialled very well going into the Newcastle Newmarket but ran only sixth to Lanciato. He is better suited in this grade and can improve. Stonebrook was in front for a long way when resuming only to be collared by Oxford Poet near the line. Beau Geste ran a blinder first-up and was scratched from the Darby Munro Stakes last Saturday to be saved for this race. Former Irish galloper Nordic Hero has ability and it would not surprise if he ran a good race fresh.
SPEED MAP: Special Missile and Stonebrook both like to lead and dictate the tempo in their races. Up ‘N’ Rolling has been racing on the speed this preparation but I expect he will sit off the two established go-forward horses.
DID YOU KNOW: Special Missile is unbeaten in two starts at Rosehill.
BETTING STRATEGY: OSBORNE BULLS to win.
