That is the view of Sky Sports pundit and former British No 1 Greg Rusedski.
Nadal opens his campaign at London’s O2 Arena against Belgium’s David Goffin this evening (not before 8pm).
However, there have been doubts over his participation due to a knee injury that forced him to to withdraw midway through the Paris Masters two weeks ago.
The Spaniard was at the venue yesterday, practising ahead of the Goffin clash and was awarded the ATP World Tour No 1 trophy following Roger Federer’s win over Jack Sock.
Rusedski thinks Nadal will give his knee a chance tonight but will then pull out, with compratriot Pablo Carreno Busta replacing him.
“I just looked at Paris,” Rusedski said.
“He got the World No 1 and you saw him limping in his last match that he won there in Paris and then withdrew the next day.
“When you can’t push up on your serve and you look at the impact the courts have on your body, I don’t think he’d be ready for this event.
“But he would like to give it a go and try it out and see if he can make it.
“Plus on top of that, this court is a lot quicker than Paris, lower bouncing that puts a lot more stress on the body.
“I think Rafa’s probably going to play one match then pull out.
“I’ve taken a little risk again on that category and put Carreno Busta into the next round.
“So I’m either going to look like a genius or I don’t know what I’m talking about whatsoever.”