Pound to euro exchange rate: Sterling ‘advances’ as Italy plunges into recession

The pound has climbed against the euro after figures showed Italy fell into recession at the end of 2018, while German consumers stopped spending in December. Sterling has endured a political rollercoaster this week after MPs voted in Parliament on Brexit for Prime Minister Theresa May to return to Brussels to try and thrash out […]

Bond markets are sending an economic warning signal — here’s when the next US recession may hit

The spread between US 2-year and 10-year bond yields – a key indicator of recessions – fell sharply to its lowest level in 11 years this week. Deutsche Bank says the risk of a recession is “very low” over the next 12 months, but rises significantly to 80% over a three-year time frame. However, the […]

An inverted yield curve might not mean a recession is coming

AP Images A number of commentators are stressing the necessity for the Fed funds rate to exceed the inflation rate for a recession signal. But the Fed funds rate didn’t exist until 1954.  And it didn’t exceed the 10-year Treasury yield before the 1957 or 1960 recessions. For the last decade I have made a […]

The 1969 US downturn can tell a lot about a key recession signal that’s been flashing yellow

Getty Images / Mario Tama The US yield curve has been flattening over recent months. Risk of inversion, a key recession signal, rises as the curve flattens. The 1969-70 recession can offer us a look at what today’s yield curve movements might mean. The persistent flattening of the U.S. yield curve has investors scratching their […]

Is This How the Next Global Recession Begins?

In this series, we have outlined black swan events that, while extremely unlikely, would lead to extremely negative global economic consequences — a disintegrating European Union, massive interest rate increases in response to runaway inflation, a flash crash that reveals the perils of financial leverage and China’s disruption of the financial world order by pricing […]

New York City foreclosures haven’t been this high since the Great Recession

Drew Angerer/Getty Images The number of foreclosures in New York City have hit the highest volume since 2009, a PropertyShark report found. The number of foreclosure cases have doubled in the last two years. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has maintained that the GOP’s tax overhaul would only contribute to more mortgage foreclosures.   It’s […]

Fed officials are scrambling to figure out how to fight the next recession

Federal Reserve officials are actively considering a shift away from their current inflation targeting framework toward more aggressive measures to combat ultra-low inflation.  However, the barrage of ideas being offered up adds to confusion about the outlook for monetary policy, and neglects the importance of the Fed’s employment mandate.  New ideas range from price-level targeting, […]

The Places That May Never Recover From the Recession

HEMET, California—Many cities across America are doing better today than they were before the recession. This is not one of them. A decade after the start of the Great Recession, it struggles with pervasive crime and poverty. “We’re still recovering—we were really hit hard on all levels,” Linda Krupa, the mayor of Hemet, told me. […]

A decade after it hit, what was learnt from the Great Recession?

TEN years ago this month, America entered the “Great Recession”. A decade on, the recession occupies a strange space in public memory. Its toll was clearly large. America suffered a cumulative loss of output estimated at nearly $ 4trn, and its labour markets have yet to recover fully. But the recession was far less bad […]

The Great Recession Is Still With Us

A decade after it started, the Great Recession has faded into memory. Corporate earnings and the stock market have fully recovered, with the financial sector thriving. The labor market has fully recovered, with middle-class earnings growing and the economy flirting with full employment. The government, at the state, local, and federal levels, has recovered too, […]