Brisbane preview: Doomben
A COMPREHENSIVE preview of every race for Saturday’s meet at Doomben, with Greg Spletter.
This is a very strong meeting for the off-season and with plenty of rain about there’s are a few gems who should improve sharply at good odds. No point in steering around the favourite in the first, HOPES ETERNAL, who brained them on debut and if he handles the conditions should make it two for two. Beaten for early speed at Toowoomba and to my eye he didn’t get any sort of a breather for the entire event. Ridden along to make ground and was still spotting the leaders four lengths at the 400 and yet he won by five eased up. He was in a completely different class to his rivals and the early juvenile race at Toowoomba often throws up a handy one. On top of the ground I’d have him $ 1.40, and the 40c bonus up to $ 1.80 represents the query on the soft. MISS ESTER was restrained out the back on debut but did hit the line nicely down the outside when it was all over. She won’t be long out of the winners’ circle but hard to see her beating the fave if he turns up. Not much else to go on, but SOARING HEART is a nicely bred trial winner and the breed do get through the going.
Not a whole lot between the top two and at the $ 6.00 I’m leaning towards MARSEILLE EN FLEUR to chalk up her first win of the new season. Disappointed first-up as an odds-on favourite where she pulled up lame, then put in a much improved run against the older horses at the Sunshine Coast, getting within two lengths of No Annamossity on the line. Last run prior to the break she was stakes-placed here over 1350m in soft going, and registered her first success here on a heavy-10. Fitter and will give this a shake. MISHANI BULLITT has a win over the top pick at the Sunshine Coast back in May, but he has struggled to put it all together in fair 3yo grade at his last few. Close-up in a small but competitive field last start over this trip and he does handle the conditions, but at the $ 2.50 has given me cause to seek value elsewhere. ZOFONIC DANCER is unbeaten and lining up for his hat-trick here against a much stronger line-up than he has faced to date. Not without a hope, though there is a query around the soft track and he’s not entitled to be shorter than the top pick.
I’m quite a fan of No Annamossity but he is very short and at the value I’m jumping on SICARIO. He’s been a very consistent miler this time in, and got the job done last time in easier grade circling them early and giving them something to catch. He wasn’t far away from some very handy youngster prior to his break over August, and with no speed engaged here he is likely to take up the running again and get some very cheap sectionals in running. He’ll handle the going without a hitch and at the $ 11 will give us a great sight out in front. NO ANNAMOSSITY is the testing material after returning to something like his real form last start at the Sunny Coast over 1400m. You can put a pen through his previous run over 1350m here where he looked out of sorts and never comfortable in running. Get through the ground and is definitely the one to beat, though he hasn’t been at $ 2.65 and will be giving my bloke a big start. MANNDAWI showed up two runs back in a handy class three event over 2040m but found the open grade a bit tough for him last time. Better suited back to this level and looks a knockout hope.
GIRL IN A MILLION did plenty of work in a strong R70 last time at the Sunshine Coast and from a good gate here can bounce back with a win. Ran them along at a very solid clip allowing Just Orm to finish over the top in a cracking 57.4 secs for the trip. She demolished them at her only try on wet ground back on debut and looks a point over the mark to me at $ 4.20. LIVE FAST certainly likes it wet and had he been slightly longer in betting I might have gambled on him instead. He’s been performing consistently well in stronger grade than this, and was only a length from Dream Finnish at Ipswich last time at the end of 1200m. The drop back in distance isn’t ideal, but if something pushes my top pick along upfront he will be finishing hard. Not missed at $ 10 but you can play around with these two in the multiples and find some value. VALFIERNO is shooting for a hat-trick after winning both starts back from a break. Latest got through the heavy here to beat a moderate midweek field under 58kg. Has to lift to beat these and is drawn hopelessly and is thus a bit close to Girl In A Million in betting at $ 5.50.
JETSONIC drops back from a very strong Bm75 into a much easier race and he is a mile over the mark at $ 9.50. Got left hopelessly at the start at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago and by the time he got into stride he was four lengths behind the second last horse. Still spotted them 10 lengths on straightening before rocketing home to beat all but Courtza King on the line. Phenomenal run and he strikes a much weaker field here. Has a good record on wet tracks and is a great each way bet, let’s just hope he behaves at the jump. I’m quite familiar with NILETTE and while she has produced a couple of nice results back from a break, she is probably the lay of the day at $ 2.60 against this line-up. Placed in an okay Bm75 for the girls last time and while she did draw poorly she only plugged away on the line. She should handle the wet okay but is at prohibitive odds. LOOSE GOOSE didn’t reproduce her amazing trial form on race day last start and couldn’t even find the lead after powering along in practice the week prior. I don’t think it’s enough to give up on her entirely, especially at the $ 21, and she’s worth a small saver against the chance she improves sharply.
Value aplenty in the quaddie and I’m kicking it off with CLASS RUBY who could give some cheek at $ 26. Second-up. Not a bad effort first-up from a 79 week spell last time at the Sunshine Coast, sticking on well at the end of a mile at class three level. She ran some good races in Victoria prior to the switch, has never missed a place at the trip and has never missed a place second-up. Not bad for one at cricket score odds. ENDLESS DAYS also represent some value here at $ 12 after placing in a good quality Bm80 at the Gold Coast last start. Prefers it wet and drawn to advantage. MISS ARABELLA has come up $ 18 which is also a bit harsh considering her lack of space at the Sunshine Coast last time. Won three already this prep and bred to run this trip right out.
Sticking with the value here in a very competitive open event and ONE INCH PUNCH has been crying out for a wet track. He’s battle away at all three start back this campaign without threatening, but he improves a ton when the track is soft having won four of eight on wet tracks and placed at another two. Currently $ 17 and when the rain comes down I expect he will shorten dramatically. MAN OF HIS WORD also likes it wet and while he needed the run from off a break at the Sunshine Coast last time, he should be primed for a big run. Goes well at the trip and if it weren’t for the 5kg he’s giving my bloke I’d be on him. Entitled to be favourite and is definitely worth a saver at $ 5.50. MYSTIC OPAL also need a wet tack to produce her best and did great at her first couple of starts back all things considered. A little disappointing last time out of town but she gets everything to suit and should improve. I’m surprised LORDAG is favourite, jagged a win over Dreams Aplenty two runs back and he still hasn’t won a race this time in. Go around him.
Tough race to measure but I’m sticking with WITH A PROMISE despite a slightly disappointing effort last time. She does excel on wet ground as evidenced by her two stunning victories last prep including one over the older horse in the Silk Stocking. At $ 14 she will run a bold race for us each way. BECKHAM caught the eye first-up with a closing run over 1200m and he, too, doesn’t mind the sting out of the ground. Consistent type around this level and this is his trip. HOPFGARTERN resumes here and if he produces a similar run to his Victory Stakes placing behind Music Magnate in April he will belt them. He’s now a 7yo, though, and might need a run before hitting his straps.
Very happy to be on TIME TO TORQUE at $ 17 here in the last following an encouraging fresh run at the Sunshine Coast a fortnight ago, running on strongly behind Courtza King in a Bm75. He loves it wet, goes very well off a run and has drawn to get all the favours in running. ZAHSPEED also put in a nice run first-up when nosed out by Helarocity at the end of 1200m. Strips fitter tomorrow and gets some weight relief coming into this slightly tougher assignment. CARZOFF is the query runner who has come up favourite at $ 3.60 and to be fair he could just be too classy for them. Placed at his first two runs in Australia last prep in similar grade and did perform okay in the conditions. Resuming and might need the run, but has to be included in your quaddie.